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Bond market inflation expectations and longer-term trends in broad monetary growth and inflation in industrial countries, 1880-2001

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  • Dewald, William G.

Abstract

Annual data for thirteen countries revealed three long up trends and down trends in inflation that were matched by growth rates in M2 and nominal GDP but not real GDP in each country and cross-country averages. Inflationary expectations as estimated by bond rates less real growth trends indicated little inflation expectation until the 1960s. Central banks had credibility to keep inflation low even during wartime. It was lost as inflation rose in the 1970s and regained only as inflation fell subsequently. Although relationships with annual data were not as reliable as with ten-year averages, annual inflation was significantly related to annual M2 growth and inflationary expectations which should not be ignored in central bank decision making. JEL Classification: E3, E40, E50, N10

Suggested Citation

  • Dewald, William G., 2003. "Bond market inflation expectations and longer-term trends in broad monetary growth and inflation in industrial countries, 1880-2001," Working Paper Series 253, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2003253
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp253.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Alfred A. Haug, 2014. "On real interest rate persistence: the role of breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(10), pages 1058-1066, April.
    2. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 2010. "Money and Inflation: Some Critical Issues," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 3, pages 97-153, Elsevier.
    3. Alfred A. Haug & William G. Dewald, 2012. "Money, Output, And Inflation In The Longer Term: Major Industrial Countries, 1880–2001," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 50(3), pages 773-787, July.
    4. Binder, Carola Conces, 2016. "Estimation of historical inflation expectations," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-31.
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Adam Cagliarini & Christopher Kent & Glenn Stevens, 2010. "Fifty Years of Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Michael Robson (ed.),Reserve Bank of Australia 50th Anniversary Symposium, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. Siklos, Pierre L., 2012. "No coupling, no decoupling, only mutual inter-dependence: Business cycles in emerging vs. mature economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2012, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    8. Gallegati, Marco & Giri, Federico & Fratianni, Michele, 2019. "Money growth and inflation: International historical evidence on high inflation episodes for developed countries," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2019, Bank of Finland.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    central bank; History; inflation; interest rates; money; money and credit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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