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Estimating the trend of M3 income velocity underlying the reference value for monetary growth

  • Claus Brand
  • Dieter Gerdesmeier
  • Barbara Roffia

This paper documents the analytical work that was carried out for the 2001 review of the assumption for the trend in M3 income velocity used to calculate the reference value for M3 growth. We analyse the medium-term trend in velocity using univariate time series tools and different money demand models. In addition, some cross-checking is carried out to address data compilation issues related to the accession of Greece in 2001 and to different weighting schemes used to aggregate historical euro area data. It is found that the trend decline in M3 incomevelocity over the medium term is within a range of 1/2% to 1% per year.

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File URL: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecbocp3.pdf
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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Occasional Paper Series with number 03.

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Length: 64 pages
Date of creation: May 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:20020003
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  1. Joaquim Vieira Ferreira Levy & Alessandro Calza & Dieter Gerdesmeier, 2001. "Euro Area Money Demand: Measuring the Opportunity Costs Appropriately," IMF Working Papers 01/179, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
  3. Gabriel Fagan & JÊrÆme Henry, 1998. "Long run money demand in the EU: Evidence for area-wide aggregates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 483-506.
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