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Estimation of a German money demand system - a long-run analysis


  • Kirstin Hubrich

    () (Institut f³ur Statistik und ãkonometrie, Humboldt-UniversitÄt zu Berlin, Spandauer Str.1, D-10178 Berlin, Germany)


This study presents a multivariate analysis of the stability of long-run relationships between variables that influence the conduct and transmission process of the German monetary policy. The initial VAR comprises the variables real money M3, real GNP, the inflation rate, a long-term and a weighted short-term interest rate. A multivariate approach has been chosen, as this allows for more than one cointegration relationship and to test restrictions on the cointegration space. In contrast to most other studies on German monetary policy, three stable and economically plausible cointegration relationships are obtained simultaneously within the framework of the Johansen procedure: a money demand relationship, a long-run Fisher effect and a long-run relationship between the short- and the long-term interest rate. It is apparent that the structural break of German reunification can be modelled incorporating dummy variables in the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirstin Hubrich, 1999. "Estimation of a German money demand system - a long-run analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 77-99.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:24:y:1999:i:1:p:77-99 Note: received: October 1996/final version received: July 1997

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Ralf Brüggemann & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2005. "Practical Problems with Reduced-rank ML Estimators for Cointegration Parameters and a Simple Alternative," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(5), pages 673-690, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ivo Arnold, 2003. "A Regional Analysis of German Money Demand Around Reunification with Implications for EMU," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 63-80, March.
    2. Helmut Lütkepohl & Ralf Brüggemann, 2006. "A small monetary system for the euro area based on German data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(6), pages 683-702.
    3. Carstensen Kai & Hansen Gerd, 2004. "Inflationäre Schocks in Deutschland: Eine Common Trends Analyse / Inflationary Shocks in Germany: A Common Trends Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 224(3), pages 271-291, June.
    4. Elmer Sterken, 2004. "Demand for money and shortages in Ethiopia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(12), pages 759-769.
    5. Kai Carstensen & Jan Hagen & Oliver Hossfeld & Abelardo Salazar Neaves, 2009. "Money Demand Stability And Inflation Prediction In The Four Largest Emu Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(1), pages 73-93, February.
    6. repec:dgr:rugcds:199909 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Maghyereh, Aktham, 2003. "Financial Liberalization and Stability Demand for Money in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Jordan," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(2).
    8. Kirstin Hubrich & Peter Vlaar, 2004. "Monetary transmission in Germany: Lessons for the Euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 383-414, May.
    9. Matthias Cinyabuguma & Bernardin Akitoby, 2004. "Sources of Growth in the Democratic Republic of the Congo; A Cointegration Approach," IMF Working Papers 04/114, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Karen Cabos & Michael Funke & Nikolaus A. Siegfried, 2001. "Some Thoughts on Monetary Targeting vs. Inflation Targeting," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 2(3), pages 219-238, August.
    11. K.S.E.M. Hubrich & P.J.G. Vlaar, 2000. "Germany and the euro area: differences in the transmission process of monetary policy," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 613, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    12. Roberto Golinelli & Sergio Pastorello, 2002. "Modelling the demand for M3 in the Euro area," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 371-401.
    13. Gerberding, Christina & Seitz, Franz & Worms, Andreas, 2007. "Money-based interest rate rules: lessons from German data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,06, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Clostermann Jörg & Seitz Franz, 2002. "Money, Inflation and Growth in Germany. A Vector-Error-Correction-P-Star Model / Der Zusammenhang zwischen Geldmenge, Output und Preisen in Deutschland. Ein Vektorfehlerkorrektur-P-Star-Ansatz," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 222(6), pages 641-655, December.
    15. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Diop, A. & Fonteny, E-C. & Gervais, E. & Jacquinot, P. & Mésonnier, J-S. & Sahuc, J-G., 2003. "Estimation d’une fonction de demande de monnaie pour la zone euro : une synthèse des résultats," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 111, pages 47-72.

    More about this item


    Money demand · Fisher effect · interest rate spread · German monetary policy · Johansen procedure;

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection


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