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Some Thoughts on Monetary Targeting vs. Inflation Targeting

Listed author(s):
  • Karen Cabos
  • Michael Funke
  • Nikolaus A. Siegfried

We offer some empirical evidence on the likely scale of control and indicator problems surrounding alternative monetary targets and a direct inflation target. The links between monetary policy actions and inflation are estimated in dynamic linear models using the Kalman filter. We compare alternative intermediate-target and final-target monetary strategies using German data from the end of the Bretton Woods system until 1997. The estimation results show that broad money dominates narrow money as an intermediate target, while control problems involved in targeting broad money are larger than for direct inflation targets. Copyright Verein fü Socialpolitik and Blackwell Publishers Ltd 2001.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1468-0475.00035
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Article provided by Verein für Socialpolitik in its journal German Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 2 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3 (08)
Pages: 219-238

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Handle: RePEc:bla:germec:v:2:y:2001:i:3:p:219-238
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  1. Cukierman, A., 1996. "Targeting Monetary Aggregates and Inflation in Europe," Papers 37-96, Tel Aviv.
  2. Svensson, L-E-O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting : Implementaing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Papers 615, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  3. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug, pages 9-110.
  4. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1996. "What Does the Bundesbank Target?," NBER Working Papers 5764, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Prakash Loungani & Mark Rush, 1991. "The effect of changes in reserve requirements on investment and GNP," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  6. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Richard Clarida & Mark Gertler, 1996. "How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
  9. Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer., 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," Economics Working Papers 89-107, University of California at Berkeley.
  10. Kirstin Hubrich, 1999. "Estimation of a German money demand system - a long-run analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 77-99.
  11. Michael J. Dueker, 1995. "Narrow vs. broad measures of money as intermediate targets: some forecast results," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 41-51.
  12. Linda S. Kole & Ellen E. Meade, 1995. "German monetary targeting: a retrospective view," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 917-931.
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