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Some Thoughts on Monetary Targeting vs. Inflation Targeting

  • Karen Cabos
  • Michael Funke
  • Nikolaus A. Siegfried

We offer some empirical evidence on the likely scale of control and indicator problems surrounding alternative monetary targets and a direct inflation target. The links between monetary policy actions and inflation are estimated in dynamic linear models using the Kalman filter. We compare alternative intermediate-target and final-target monetary strategies using German data from the end of the Bretton Woods system until 1997. The estimation results show that broad money dominates narrow money as an intermediate target, while control problems involved in targeting broad money are larger than for direct inflation targets. Copyright Verein fü Socialpolitik and Blackwell Publishers Ltd 2001.

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Article provided by Verein für Socialpolitik in its journal German Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 2 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3 (08)
Pages: 219-238

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Handle: RePEc:bla:germec:v:2:y:2001:i:3:p:219-238
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  1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
  2. Prakash Loungani & Mark Rush, 1994. "The effect of changes in reserve requirements on investment and GNP," International Finance Discussion Papers 471, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
  4. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Working Papers 2966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
  6. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1998. "Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Four Countries," NBER Working Papers 6126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Richard H. Clarida & Mark Gertler, 1997. "How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 363-412 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1996. "What Does the Bundesbank Target?," NBER Working Papers 5764, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Linda S. Kole & Ellen E. Meade, 1995. "German monetary targeting: a retrospective view," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 917-931.
  10. Michael J. Dueker, 1995. "Narrow vs. broad measures of money as intermediate targets: some forecast results," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 41-51.
  11. Cukierman, A., 1996. "Targeting Monetary Aggregatesand Inflation in Europe," Discussion Paper 1996-32, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  12. Kirstin Hubrich, 1999. "Estimation of a German money demand system - a long-run analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 77-99.
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