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The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Lagged Inflation: A Case of Spurious Correlation?

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  • Stephen G. Hall
  • George Hondroyiannis
  • P.A.V.B. Swamy
  • George S. Tavlas

Abstract

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) specifies a relationship between inflation and a forcing variable and the current period’s expectation of future inflation. Most empirical estimates of the NKPC, typically based on Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation, have found a significant role for lagged inflation, producing a “hybrid” NKPC. Using U.S. quarterly data, this paper examines whether the role of lagged inflation in the NKPC might be due to the spurious outcome of specification biases. Like previous investigators, we employ GMM estimation and, like those investigators, we find a significant effect for lagged inflation. We also use time varying-coefficient (TVC) estimation, a procedure that allows us to directly confront specification biases and spurious relationships. Using three separate measures of expected inflation, we find strong support for the view that, under TVC estimation, the coefficient on expected inflation is near unity and that the role of lagged inflation in the NKPC is spurious.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen G. Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Lagged Inflation: A Case of Spurious Correlation?," Discussion Papers in Economics 08/26, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    • Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:08/26
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    Cited by:

    1. Katarína Danišková & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2011. "Inflation Convergence and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in the Czech Republic," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 099-115, August.
    2. Kavtaradze, Lasha, 2014. "Inflation Dynamics in Georgia," MPRA Paper 59966, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Stephen G. Hall & P. A. V. B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2012. "Milton Friedman, the demand for money, and the ECB’s monetary policy strategy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 94(May), pages 153-186.
    4. Baxa, Jaromír & Plašil, Miroslav & Vašíček, Bořek, 2015. "Changes in inflation dynamics under inflation targeting? Evidence from Central European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 116-130.
    5. Roumen Avramov & Dragana Gnjatovic, 2008. "Stabilization Policies in Bulgaria and Yugoslavia During Communism's Terminal Years : 1980s Economic Visions in Retrospect," Working Papers 81, Bank of Greece.
    6. Emara, Noha & Zecheru, Daniela, 2022. "Is the Impact of Digitization on Domestic Inflation Non-Linear? The Case of Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 106015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Noha Emara & Daniela Zecheru, 2024. "Asymmetric threshold effects of digitization on inflation in emerging markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, December.
    8. George S. Tavlas, 2009. "The Benefits And Costs Of Monetary Union In Southern Africa: A Critical Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 1-43, February.
    9. Borek Vašícek, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Four Central European Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(5), pages 71-100, September.
    10. Stephen Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P. Swamy & George Tavlas, 2010. "The Fisher Effect Puzzle: A Case of Non-Linear Relationship?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 91-103, February.
    11. Hall, Stephen G. & Swamy, P. A. V. B. & Tavlas, George S., 2017. "Time-Varying Coefficient Models: A Proposal For Selecting The Coefficient Driver Sets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(5), pages 1158-1174, July.
    12. Zarko Lazarevic, 2008. "Banking Performance in South-Eastern Europe During the Interwar Period," Working Papers 79, Bank of Greece.
    13. Petre Caraiani & Emmanuel Haven, 2013. "The Role of Recurrence Plots in Characterizing the Output-Unemployment Relationship: An Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(2), pages 1-11, February.
    14. Apostolides, Alexander, 2008. "“How Similar to South-Eastern Europe were the Islands of Cyprus and Malta in terms of Agricultural Output and Credit? Evidence during the Interwar Period”," MPRA Paper 9968, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Hondroyiannis, George & Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2009. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve In A Time-Varying Coefficient Environment: Some European Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 149-166, April.
    16. Dong Jin Lee & Jai Hyung Yoon, 2012. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curves in Multiple Quantiles and the Asymmetry of Monetary Policy," Working papers 2012-03, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    New Keynesian Phillips Curve; time-varying coefficients; spurious relationships;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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