IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgfe/2014-22.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Demand for M2 at the Zero Lower Bound: The Recent U.S. Experience

Author

Listed:
  • Judson, Ruth

    () (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.))

  • Schlusche, Bernd

    () (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.))

  • Wong, Vivian

    () (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.))

Abstract

In this paper, we re-examine the relationship between money and interest rates with a focus on the past few years, when the opportunity cost of M2 has dropped below zero. Until the late 1980s, a stable relationship between monetary aggregates and the opportunity cost of holding money--measured as the spread between the three-month Treasury bill yield and the deposit-weighted average return on M2 assets--existed, and played an integral role in the conduct of monetary policy (e.g., Moore et al.(1990)). This relationship broke down in the early 1990s, when M2 velocity increased beyond the range that could be explained by movements in M2 opportunity cost. As of the mid-2000s, a new relationship was emerging, but was still statistically unstable. In late 2008, the opportunity cost of holding money dropped precipitously and has remained at its zero lower bound. Standard money-demand theory indicates that in such cases the interest elasticity of money demand should rise sharply. Reviewing the evidence to date, we fail to find support for such a rise through 2011, but we observe a notable change in the relationship over the most recent quarters. We conjecture that the more recent shifts, however, could be due to the effects of regulatory and monetary policy changes rather than a fundamental shift in the relationship between money and opportunity cost. Further work is needed to determine the contribution of these regulatory and monetary policy factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Judson, Ruth & Schlusche, Bernd & Wong, Vivian, 2014. "Demand for M2 at the Zero Lower Bound: The Recent U.S. Experience," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2014-22
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2014/201422/201422pap.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Orphanides, Athanasios & Porter, Richard D., 2000. "P revisited: money-based inflation forecasts with a changing equilibrium velocity," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 87-100.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Cara Lown & Stavros Peristiani & Kenneth J. Robinson, 1999. "What was behind the M2 breakdown?," Financial Industry Studies Working Paper 99-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    5. Bae, Youngsoo & Kakkar, Vikas & Ogaki, Masao, 2006. "Money Demand in Japan and Nonlinear Cointegration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1659-1667, September.
    6. Judd, John P & Scadding, John L, 1982. "The Search for a Stable Money Demand Function: A Survey of the Post-1973 Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 993-1023, September.
    7. John P. Judd & John L. Scadding, 1982. "The search for a stable money demand function: a survey of the post- 1973 literature," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 109, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    8. John C. Driscoll & Ruth Judson, 2013. "Sticky deposit rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-80, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
    9. Nakashima, Kiyotaka, 2009. "An Extremely-Low-Interest-Rate Policy And The Shape Of The Japanese Money Demand Function," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(05), pages 553-579, November.
    10. Duca, John V, 2000. "Financial Technology Shocks and the Case of the Missing M2," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 820-839, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:ecofin:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:421-432 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money demand; M2; zero lower bound; opportunity cost;

    JEL classification:

    • M2 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2014-22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (FRB Librarian). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.