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Risk, Intermediate Input Prices and Missing Deflation During the Great Recession

Author

Listed:
  • Engin Kara

    () (Department of Economics, Ozyegin University)

  • Ahmed Jamal Pirzaday

Abstract

During the Great Recession, despite the large fall in output, inflation did not fall much. This is known as the missing deflation puzzle. In this paper, we develop and estimate a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model to provide an explanation for the puzzle. The new model allows for time-varying volatility in cross-sectional idiosyncratic uncertainty and accounts for the changes in intermediate goods prices. Our model can forecast the large fall in output and stable inflation during the Great Recession. We show that inflation did not fall much because intermediate goods prices were increasing during the Great Recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Engin Kara & Ahmed Jamal Pirzaday, 2015. "Risk, Intermediate Input Prices and Missing Deflation During the Great Recession," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1521, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  • Handle: RePEc:koc:wpaper:1521
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    File URL: http://eaf.ku.edu.tr/sites/eaf.ku.edu.tr/files/erf_wp_1521.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 197-232, January.
    2. Gregory de Walque & Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2006. "Price Shocks in General Equilibrium: Alternative Specifications," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 52(1), pages 153-176, March.
    3. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2009. "New Keynesian Models: Not Yet Useful for Policy Analysis," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 242-266, January.
    4. Michael T. Kiley, 2008. "Monetary policy actions and long-run inflation expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Price Mark-up Shocks; Great Recession; Inflation; DSGE; Intermediate Inputs.;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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