Country adjustment to a ‘sudden stop’: Does the euro make a difference?
A ‘sudden stop’ to (private) capital inflows is usually very disruptive to an economy because it forces an almost immediate reversal in the current account unless the country in question receives substantial balance of payments assistance. The analysis presented in this paper starts from the observation that two groups of European countries, neither of which could use the exchange rate as an adjustment instrument, experienced a sudden stop after the outbreak of the global financial crisis. The first group comprises five euro area member states under financial stress during the euro area debt crisis (“GIIPS”). The second group comprises four newer EU Member States in Central and Eastern Europe (“BELL”). We highlight the differences in the adjustment paths of these two groups and analyse the factors which can explain them. The main finding is that the adjustment was quicker outside EMU than inside. The shock absorbers provided by the financial ‘plumbing’ of the Eurosystem offset much of the reversal in private capital flows and seem to have created an environment in which the pressure for a quick adjustment was much weaker. We also find that the structure of the domestic banking industry plays a key role. Foreign ownership of banks provided a loss absorber in the BELL favouring a quick correction, while the legacy of the banking crisis in some of GIIPS, where foreign ownership of banks was limited, is likely to weight for long time on their still incomplete.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Inter-institutional relations and communication Unit, B-1049 Brussels|
Fax: +32 2 298.08.23
Web page: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/index_en.htm
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009.
"This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly,"
Princeton University Press,
edition 1, number 8973, 01-2013.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009.
"Varieties of Crises and Their Dates
[This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly]," Introductory Chapters, Princeton University Press.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates
- Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershaeuser, 2011.
"Target Loans, Current Account Balances and Capital Flows: The ECB's Rescue Facility,"
NBER Working Papers
17626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Target loans, current account balances and capital flows: the ECB’s rescue facility," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 468-508, August.
- Sinn, Hans-Werner & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2012. "Target loans, current account balances and capital flows: The ECB’s rescue facility," Munich Reprints in Economics 19556, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2011. "Target Loans, Current Account Balances and Capital Flows: The ECB’s Rescue Facility," CESifo Working Paper Series 3500, CESifo Group Munich.
- Daniel Gros & Cinzia Alcidi, 2011. "euro zone crisis 2010," The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Palgrave Macmillan.
- Silvia Merler & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 2012.
"Sudden Stops in the Euro Area,"
Review of Economics and Institutions,
Università di Perugia, vol. 3(3).
- Romain Bouis & Romain Duval, 2011. "Raising Potential Growth After the Crisis: A Quantitative Assessment of the Potential Gains from Various Structural Reforms in the OECD Area and Beyond," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 835, OECD Publishing.
- Bergljot B Barkbu & Jesmin Rahman & Rodrigo O. Valdes, 2012. "Fostering Growth in Europe Now," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 12/07, International Monetary Fund.
- Giavazzi, Francesco & Spaventa, Luigi, 2010.
"Why the current account may matter in a monetary union: Lessons from the financial crisis in the Euro area,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8008, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Francesco Giavazzi & Luigi Spaventa, 2011. "Why the current account may matter in a monetary union. Lesson from the financial crisis in the Euro area," Working Papers 426, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Mayer, Thomas & Gros, Daniel, 2011. "Debt reduction without default?," CEPS Papers 4150, Centre for European Policy Studies.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0492. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ECFIN INFO)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.