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Current account adjustment in EU countries: Does euro-area membership make a difference?

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  • Herrmann, Sabine
  • Jochem, Axel

Abstract

The paper evaluates current account dynamics in countries with different exchange rate regimes within the EU. In this, the empirical analysis explicitly differentiates between countries with a flexible and a fixed exchange rate regime and members of a monetary union. In addition, we model the adjustment process of external disequilibria by referring to the flexibility of exchange rates and interest rates. The sample covers annual data for 27 EU countries from 1994 to 2011. The estimation is based on a simple autoregressive model and comes to the conclusion that current account adjustment is significantly hampered in countries that are members of a monetary union. This holds particularly in comparison with floating exchange rate regimes owing to lower exchange rate flexibility. However, the persistence of current account balances in member countries of a monetary union is also more pronounced than in fixed-rate regimes due to less flexible interest rates as a result of the single monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Herrmann, Sabine & Jochem, Axel, 2013. "Current account adjustment in EU countries: Does euro-area membership make a difference?," Discussion Papers 49/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:492013
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlo D'Ippoliti, 2013. "Introduzione: L'Unione Europea e' "mammona" (Introduction: A Pansy European Union)," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 66(264), pages 377-395.
    2. Pucar Emilija Beker & Glavaški Olgica, 2019. "Macroeconomic Еxternal (Im)Balances within the Eurozone: Core Vs Periphery," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 57(3), pages 257-272, September.
    3. van Riet, Ad, 2016. "Safeguarding the euro as a currency beyond the state," Occasional Paper Series 173, European Central Bank.
    4. Radovan Kovaèeviæ, 2017. "Current Account determinants in Southeast European (SEE) countries – panel approach," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 35(2), pages 391-424.
    5. Beirne, John & Renzhi, Nuobu & Volz, Ulrich, 2021. "Persistent current account imbalances: Are they good or bad for regional and global growth?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    6. Gelman, Maria & Jochem, Axel & Reitz, Stefan, 2016. "Transmission of global financial shocks to EMU member states: The role of monetary policy and national factors," Discussion Papers 23/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Pablo Duarte & Gunther Schnabl, 2015. "Macroeconomic Policy Making, Exchange Rate Adjustment and Current Account Imbalances in Emerging Markets," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 531-544, August.
    8. Semmler, Willi & Tahri, Ibrahim, 2017. "Current account imbalances: A new approach to assess external debt sustainability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 161-170.
    9. Berghäll, Pii Elina, 2013. "Miksi eurosta kannattaa erota [Why Finland should abandon the euro]," MPRA Paper 68830, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jan 2016.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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