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Country adjustment to a ‘sudden stop’: does the euro make a difference?

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  • Daniel Gros
  • Cinzia Alcidi

Abstract

This paper starts from the observation that two groups of European countries, neither of which could use the exchange rate as an adjustment instrument, experienced a sudden stop after the outbreak of the global financial crisis. The first group comprises Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain, while four newer EU Member States with the exchange rate pegged to the euro, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, belong to the second group. The main finding is that the adjustment was quicker outside EMU than inside. The shock absorber provided by the Eurosystem reduced the pressure for a quick adjustment, while foreign ownership of banks in non-euro area countries favoured quick fiscal and external corrections but also averted the legacy of a banking crisis. A rudimentary welfare comparison of the two patterns over the whole period of adjustment suggests that the ‘short and sharp’ correction approach is preferable in terms of macroeconomic outcome. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

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  • Daniel Gros & Cinzia Alcidi, 2015. "Country adjustment to a ‘sudden stop’: does the euro make a difference?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 5-20, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:12:y:2015:i:1:p:5-20
    DOI: 10.1007/s10368-014-0286-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeroen Hessel, 2019. "Medium-term asymmetric fluctuations and EMU as an optimum currency area," DNB Working Papers 644, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    2. Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel, 2017. "Optimal adjustment paths in a monetary union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 338-345.
    3. Lane, Philip, 2015. "Macro-Financial Stability under EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 10776, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros & Alcidi Cinzia & Leonor Coutinho & Alessandro Giovannini, 2014. "Exit State-of-play in Implementing Macroeconomic Adjustment Programmes in the Euro Area," ROME Working Papers 201405, ROME Network.
    5. Gelman, Maria & Jochem, Axel & Reitz, Stefan, 2016. "Transmission of global financial shocks to EMU member states: The role of monetary policy and national factors," Discussion Papers 23/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Gros, Daniel & Alcidi, Cinzia & Belke, Ansgar & Coutinho, Leonor & Giovannini, Alessandro, 2014. "State-of-Play in Implementing Macroeconomic Adjustment Programmes in the Euro Area," Ruhr Economic Papers 482, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    7. Philip R. Lane, 2014. "International Financial Flows and the Irish Crisis," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(02), pages 14-19, April.
    8. Michael A Stemmer, 2017. "Revisiting Finance and Growth in Transition Economies - A Panel Causality Approach," Post-Print halshs-01524462, HAL.
    9. Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Fernández-Arias, Eduardo & Powell, Andrew, 2014. "Is the Euro-zone on the Mend? Latin American examples to analyze the Euro question," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 243-257.
    10. Esposito, Piero & Messori, Marcello, 2019. "Competitive or recession gains? On the recent macroeconomic rebalances in the EMU," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 147-167.
    11. Schoenmaker, Dirk & Wierts, Peter, 2015. "Regulating the financial cycle: An integrated approach with a leverage ratio," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 70-72.
    12. Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel, 2017. "Greece and the Troika � Lessons from international best practice cases of successful price (and wage) adjustment," CEPS Papers 12557, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    13. Daniel Gros & Cinzia Alcidi & Ansgar Belke & Leonor Coutinho & Alessandro Giovannini, 2014. "State-of-Play in Implementing Macroeconomic Adjustment Programmes in the Euro Area," Ruhr Economic Papers 0482, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    14. Eloísa Ortega & Juan Peñalosa, 2013. "Some Thoughts On The Spanish Economy After Five Years Of Crisis," Occasional Papers 1304, Banco de España.
    15. Philip R. Lane, 2014. "International Financial Flows and the Irish Crisis," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(2), pages 14-19, April.
    16. Stefanos Ioannou, 2017. "Credit Rating Downgrades and Sudden Stops of Capital Flows in the Eurozone," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(03), pages 1-36, October.
    17. Esposito, Piero & Messori, Marcello, 2016. "Improved Structural Competitiveness or Deep Recession? On the recent macroeconomic rebalances in the EMU," LEAP Working Papers 2016/3, Luiss Institute for European Analysis and Policy.
    18. Valentina Milano, 2017. "Risk Sharing in the Euro Zone: the Role of European Institutions," Working Papers CELEG 1701, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    19. repec:zbw:rwirep:0482 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Benjamin Schwanebeck, 2017. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in a Financially Heterogeneous Monetary Union," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201741, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    21. Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Fernández-Arias, Eduardo & Powell, Andrew, 2014. "Is the Euro-zone on the Mend? Latin American examples to analyze the Euro question," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 243-257.
    22. Herrmann, Sabine & Jochem, Axel, 2013. "Current account adjustment in EU countries: Does euro-area membership make a difference?," Discussion Papers 49/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    23. István Benczes & Balázs Szent-Iványi, 2017. "The European Economy: The Recovery Continues, but for How Long?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55, pages 133-148, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Country adjustment; Imbalances; Sudden stop; Monetary union; E20; F32; F36; H60;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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