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Implementation of the Macroeconomic Adjustment Programmes in the Euro Area: State-of-Play

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  • Gros, Daniel
  • Alcidi, Cinzia
  • Belke, Ansgar
  • Coutinho, Leonor
  • Giovannini, Alessandro

Abstract

Two of the four macroeconomic adjustment programmes – in Portugal and Ireland – can be considered a success in the sense that the initial expectations in terms of adjustment, both fiscal and external, were broadly fulfilled. A rebound based on exports has taken hold in these two countries, but a full recovery will take years. In Greece the initial plans were insufficient. While the strong impact of the fiscal adjustment on demand could have been partially anticipated at the time, the resistance to structural reforms was more surprising and remains difficult to cure. The fiscal adjustment is now almost completed, but the external adjustment has not proceeded well. Exports are stagnating despite impressive falls in wage costs. In Cyprus, the outcome has so far been less severe than initially feared. It is still too early to find robust evidence in any country that the programmes have increased the long-term growth potential. Survey-based evidence suggests that structural reforms have not yet taken hold. The EU-led macroeconomic adjustment programmes outside the euro area (e.g. Latvia) seem to have been much stricter, but the adjustment was quicker and followed by a stronger rebound.

Suggested Citation

  • Gros, Daniel & Alcidi, Cinzia & Belke, Ansgar & Coutinho, Leonor & Giovannini, Alessandro, 2014. "Implementation of the Macroeconomic Adjustment Programmes in the Euro Area: State-of-Play," CEPS Papers 9017, Centre for European Policy Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:eps:cepswp:9017
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    File URL: http://www.ceps.eu/system/files/Macroeconomic%20Adjustment%20Programmes%20in%20Euro%20Area%20e-book.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jean Pisani-Ferry & André Sapir & Guntram B. Wolff, . "EU-IMF assistance to euro area countries: an early assessment," Blueprints, Bruegel, number 779.
    2. Mark A Horton & George C. Tsibouris & Wojciech Maliszewski & Mark J Flanagan, 2006. "Experience with Large Fiscal Adjustments," IMF Occasional Papers 246, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:liu:liucej:v:14:y:2017:i:2:p:177-195 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel, 2016. "Negative Rates and Seigniorage: Turning the central bank business model upside down? The special case of the ECB," CEPS Papers 11753, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    3. Belke, Ansgar & Domnick, Clemens, 2018. "Trade and capital flows: Substitutes or complements? An empirical investigation," GLO Discussion Paper Series 269, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    4. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2017. "Greece and the Troika – Lessons from International Best Practice Cases of Successful Price (and Wage) Adjustment," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 14(2), pages 177-195, December.
    5. repec:erc:cypepr:v:11:y:2017:i:2:p:19-62 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Elena Bobeica & Paulo Soares Esteves & António Rua & Karsten Staehr, 2016. "Exports and domestic demand pressure: a dynamic panel data model for the euro area countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(1), pages 107-125, February.
    7. Buse, Rebekka & Schienle, Melanie & Urban, Jörg, 2019. "Effectiveness of policy and regulation in European sovereign credit risk markets: A network analysis," Working Paper Series in Economics 125, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Business Engineering.
    8. Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel, 2017. "Optimal adjustment paths in a monetary union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 338-345.
    9. Barslund, Mikkel, 2015. "Greece’s poor growth prospects," CEPS Papers 10856, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    10. Cinzia Alcidi & Ansgar Belke & Alessandro Giovannini & Daniel Gros, 2016. "Macroeconomic adjustment programmes in the euro area: an overall assessment," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 345-358, July.
    11. Alcidi, Cinzia & Gros, Daniel & Rinaldi, David & Núñez Ferrer, Jorge, 2017. "The Instruments providing Macro-Financial Support to EU Member States," CEPS Papers 12373, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    12. Theodoros S. Papaspyrou, 2015. "EMU 2.0 Drawing Lessons From the Crisis - a New Framework For Stability and Growth," Working Papers 192, Bank of Greece.
    13. Zdenek Kudrna, 2014. "The future of the Euro: agreements to disagree and prospective scenarios from the 2014 Vienna debate," Working Papers of the Vienna Institute for European integration research (EIF) 3, Institute for European integration research (EIF).

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