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The rise of China and India: blessing or curse for the advanced countries?

  • Stracca, Livio

This paper evaluates the impact of the rise of large emerging manufacturing exporters such as China and India on economic growth in advanced countries. After illustrating the possible theoretical channels, I estimate a growth regression based on 3-year average data augmented with country-specific measures of import and export competition from China and India using instrumental variables. Stronger import competition from China and India leads to stronger income growth in advanced countries, but to a loss of manufacturing jobs. A more flexible labour market, lower concentration of employment in manufacturing and pre-existing trade links with China and India help advanced countries to maximise the growth dividend resulting from their rise in world export markets. JEL Classification: F02, F15

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1620.

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Date of creation: Dec 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131620
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  1. Lipinska, Anna & Millard, Stephen, 2011. "Tailwinds and headwinds: how does growth in the BRICs affect inflation in the G7?," Bank of England working papers 420, Bank of England.
  2. Navas Antonio & Licandro Omar, 2011. "Trade Liberalization, Competition and Growth," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-28, May.
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  5. Iacovone, Leonardo & Rauch, Ferdinand & Winters, L. Alan, 2013. "Trade as an engine of creative destruction: Mexican experience with Chinese competition," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 379-392.
  6. Marc J. Melitz & Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano, 2005. "Market Size, Trade, and Productivity," Development Working Papers 201, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
  7. Christian Dreger & Yanqun Zhang, 2011. "The Chinese Impact on GDP Growth and Inflation in the Industrial Countries," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1151, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  8. Peter K. Schott, 2008. "The relative sophistication of Chinese exports," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 23, pages 5-49, 01.
  9. Ippei Fujiwara & Keisuke Otsu & Masashi Saito, 2011. "The Global Impact of Chinese Growth," Studies in Economics 1115, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  10. repec:hhs:iuiwop:430 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Baldwin, Richard, 2012. "Global supply chains: Why they emerged, why they matter, and where they are going," CEPR Discussion Papers 9103, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. David M. G. Newbery & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1984. "Pareto Inferior Trade," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 1-12.
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