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The rise of China and India: blessing or curse for the advanced countries?

  • Stracca, Livio

This paper evaluates the impact of the rise of large emerging manufacturing exporters such as China and India on economic growth in advanced countries. After illustrating the possible theoretical channels, I estimate a growth regression based on 3-year average data augmented with country-specific measures of import and export competition from China and India using instrumental variables. Stronger import competition from China and India leads to stronger income growth in advanced countries, but to a loss of manufacturing jobs. A more flexible labour market, lower concentration of employment in manufacturing and pre-existing trade links with China and India help advanced countries to maximise the growth dividend resulting from their rise in world export markets. JEL Classification: F02, F15

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1620.

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Date of creation: Dec 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131620
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  1. Leonardo Iacovone & Ferdinand Rauch & L. Alan Winters, 2010. "Trade as an Engine of Creative Destruction Mexico experience with Chinese competition," Working Paper Series 0510, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
  2. Marc J. Melitz & Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, 2008. "Market Size, Trade, and Productivity," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(1), pages 295-316.
  3. Bloom, Nicholas & Draca, Mirko & Van Reenen, John, 2011. "Trade induced technical change? The impact of Chinese imports on innovation, IT and productivity," CEPR Discussion Papers 8236, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Omar Licandro & Antonio Navas Ruiz, 2010. "Trade Liberalization, Competition and Growth," Working Papers 436, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  5. Ippei Fujiwara & Keisuke Otsu & Masashi Saito, 2008. "The Global Impact of Chinese Growth," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-22, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  6. Peter K. Schott, 2008. "The relative sophistication of Chinese exports," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 23, pages 5-49, 01.
  7. Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 1995. "Globalization and the Inequality of Nations," NBER Working Papers 5098, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Timothy J. Kehoe & Mark J. Gibson & Kim J. Ruhl & Claustre Bajna, 2011. "Trade Liberalization, Growth, and Productivity," 2011 Meeting Papers 794, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  9. Newbery, David M G & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Pareto Inferior Trade," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 1-12, January.
  10. Lipinska, Anna & Millard, Stephen, 2011. "Tailwinds and headwinds: how does growth in the BRICs affect inflation in the G7?," Bank of England working papers 420, Bank of England.
  11. Christian Dreger & Yanqun Zhang, 2011. "The Chinese Impact on GDP Growth and Inflation in the Industrial Countries," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1151, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  12. Baldwin, Richard, 2012. "Global supply chains: Why they emerged, why they matter, and where they are going," CEPR Discussion Papers 9103, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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