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A New Supply Bottlenecks Index Based on Newspaper Data

Author

Listed:
  • Pablo Burriel

    (Banco de España)

  • Iván Kataryniuk

    (Banco de España)

  • Carlos Moreno Pérez

    (Banco de España)

  • Francesca Viani

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

We develop a new monthly indicator of supply bottlenecks using newspaper articles. The supply bottlenecks index (SBI) provides a consistent narrative of supply issues related to wars, natural disasters, strikes, and, most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic. Innovations in the SBI have important macroeconomic implications: an increase in the SBI works as a costpush shock, decreasing industrial production and employment and pushing prices up, making monetary policy face important trade-offs.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Burriel & Iván Kataryniuk & Carlos Moreno Pérez & Francesca Viani, 2024. "A New Supply Bottlenecks Index Based on Newspaper Data," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(2), pages 17-67, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2024:q:2:a:2
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Acemoglu, Daron & Tahbaz-Salehi, Alireza, 2020. "Firms, Failures, and Fluctuations: The Macroeconomics of Supply Chain Disruptions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15074, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Felix L. Friedt, 2021. "Natural disasters, aggregate trade resilience, and local disruptions: Evidence from Hurricane Katrina," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(5), pages 1081-1120, November.
    3. Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 955-980, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Clodomiro Ferreira & Stefano Pica, 2024. "Household perceptions of the sources of business cycle fluctuations: a tale of supply and demand," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1441, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Jovica Pejčić & Olgica Glavaški & Marina Beljić, 2024. "Driving Forces of the Consumer Price Index During the Crises in the Eurozone: Heterogeneous Panel Approach," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-19, October.
    3. Onur Polat & Rangan Gupta & Elie Bouri & Mariem Brahim, 2025. "Climate Risks and Predictability of the Conditional Distributions of Rare Earth Stock Returns and Volatility," Working Papers 202517, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Xiwen Bai & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory," Economics Series Working Papers 1033, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. Bouri, Elie & Cepni, Oguzhan & Gupta, Rangan & Liu, Ruipeng, 2025. "Supply chain constraints and the predictability of the conditional distribution of international stock market returns and volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    6. Balleer, Almut & Noeller, Marvin, 2023. "Monetary policy in the presence of supply constraints: Evidence from German firm-level data," Ruhr Economic Papers 1060, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    7. Morteza Ghomi & Samuel Hurtado & José Manuel Montero, 2024. "Analysis of recent inflation dynamics in Spain. An approach based on the Blanchard and Bernanke (2023) model," Occasional Papers 2404, Banco de España.
    8. Ascari, Guido & Bonam, Dennis & Smadu, Andra, 2024. "Global supply chain pressures, inflation, and implications for monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    9. Puch González, Luis Antonio & Guinea, Laurentiu & Ruiz, Jesús, 2024. "The asymmetry puzzle: the supply chain disruptions news shocks effects on oil prices and inflation," UC3M Working papers. Economics 43758, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    10. Laumer, Sebastian & Schaffer, Matthew, 2025. "Monetary policy transmission under supply chain pressure," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    11. Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian & Polat, Onur, 2024. "Forecasting U.S. recessions using over 150 years of data: Stock-market moments versus oil-market moments," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
    12. Clodomiro Ferreira & Stefano Pica, 2023. "Household Perceived Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations: a Tale of Supply and Demand," Working Papers 287, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    13. Mawuli Segnon & Bjorn Schulte-Tillmann & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta, 2025. "Deglobalization and Foreign Exchange Volatility: The Role of Supply Chain Pressures," Working Papers 202506, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    14. López, Lucia & Odendahl, Florens & Parraga Rodriguez, Susana & Silgado-Gómez, Edgar, 2024. "The pass-through to inflation of gas price shocks," Working Paper Series 2968, European Central Bank.
    15. Matteo Bonato & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024. "Do Shortages Forecast Aggregate and Sectoral U.S. Stock Market Realized Variance? Evidence from a Century of Data," Working Papers 202450, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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