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Analysis of recent inflation dynamics in Spain. An approach based on the Blanchard and Bernanke (2023) model

Author

Listed:
  • Morteza Ghomi

    (Banco de España)

  • Samuel Hurtado

    (Banco de España)

  • José Manuel Montero

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

The recent inflationary episode is the result of a series of shocks that have taken place over a short period of time. In this article we use the Blanchard and Bernanke (2023) model as an analytical framework to assess the relative importance of different factors over the course of this episode. Two main conclusions can be drawn from our results. First, supply-side shocks (related to energy, food and bottlenecks) have played a major role in recent inflation developments in the Spanish economy. Second, now that these supply shocks have been absorbed, labour market tightness is becoming more important as a determinant of wage inflation, with a pass-through to prices that has been limited so far but that, if it intensifies, could generate risks with a higher degree of persistence.

Suggested Citation

  • Morteza Ghomi & Samuel Hurtado & José Manuel Montero, 2024. "Analysis of recent inflation dynamics in Spain. An approach based on the Blanchard and Bernanke (2023) model," Occasional Papers 2404, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:opaper:2404e
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.53479/36294
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; wages; inflation expectations; labour market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General

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