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Shockflation in the EU: sectoral shocks, cost-push inflation and structural asymmetries in core and periphery countries

Author

Listed:
  • Vicente Ferreira
  • Joao Pedro Ferreira
  • Dario Guarascio
  • Francesco Zezza

Abstract

The return of inflation in Western economies has fueled the debate on its main drivers, bringing sector-specific shocks and supply chain bottlenecks to the forefront. Building on the seminal approach of Weber et al. (2024), this paper develops a method to assess the degree of exposure to these shocks in EU countries. Using inter-country input-output data stemming from the FIGARO database, we identify systemically significant sectors in four regions within the EU: Core, Southern Periphery, Eastern Periphery, and financial hubs. We also analyze exposure to foreign shocks. Two main conclusions can be drawn: on the one hand, periphery countries are more exposed to shocks originating in the EU core than the other way around; on the other hand, all EU regions are considerably exposed to price shocks originating from non-EU countries (namely, Russia and China). The strategic dependencies of the block pose challenges for price stability and require targeted policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Vicente Ferreira & Joao Pedro Ferreira & Dario Guarascio & Francesco Zezza, 2024. "Shockflation in the EU: sectoral shocks, cost-push inflation and structural asymmetries in core and periphery countries," Working Papers in Public Economics 254, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Roma.
  • Handle: RePEc:sap:wpaper:wp254
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Supply chain shocks; Input-Output; Core-periphery;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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