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Evaluating time-varying granger causality between US-China political relation changes and China stock market

Author

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  • Cai, Yifei
  • Chang, Hao-Wen
  • Chang, Tsangyao

Abstract

This study investigates the Granger causality between US-China political relation and Chinese stock market returns with bootstrapping method and a rolling-window technique. The results show that shifts in US-China political relation make long-lasting Granger causal impacts on stock market variations, but the reverse impacts are short-lived.

Suggested Citation

  • Cai, Yifei & Chang, Hao-Wen & Chang, Tsangyao, 2023. "Evaluating time-varying granger causality between US-China political relation changes and China stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:55:y:2023:i:pa:s1544612323002908
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2023.103918
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Xin Chen & Zhangming Shan & Decai Tang & Biao Zhou & Valentina Boamah, 2023. "Interest rate risk of Chinese commercial banks based on the GARCH-EVT model," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Mignon, Valérie & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2024. "How do political tensions and geopolitical risks impact oil prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    4. Cai, Yifei & Zhang, Yahua & Wu, Yanrui & Chang, Tsangyao, 2024. "Airline stock market performance and political relations: A cross-quantilogram analysis of Chinese and US carriers," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 124-149.
    5. Wang, Kai-Hua & Wen, Cui-Ping & Liu, Hong-Wen & Liu, Lu, 2023. "Promotion or hindrance? Exploring the bidirectional causality between geopolitical risk and green bonds from an energy perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    6. Cai, Yifei & Shen, Yijuan & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2025. "Financial conditions and Sino-US tensions: A Granger causality analysis of diverging financial condition indicators," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Afonso, António & Mignon, Valérie & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2024. "On the time-varying impact of China's bilateral political relations on its trading partners: “Doux commerce” or “trade follows the flag”?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    8. Peng, Cheng & Deng, Huimin & Xie, Jiaquan & Liu, Xiang, 2025. "US-China tension and stock market performance in US and China: New insights from time-varying quantile causality method," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).

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    JEL classification:

    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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