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Promotion or hindrance? Exploring the bidirectional causality between geopolitical risk and green bonds from an energy perspective

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  • Wang, Kai-Hua
  • Wen, Cui-Ping
  • Liu, Hong-Wen
  • Liu, Lu

Abstract

This paper discusses the time-varying causalities between global geopolitical risk (GPR) and green bonds (GBs) from the energy market perspective, with a sample period of 2012:M10-2022:M09 and a rolling window subsample causality test. Oil prices and the investment, consumption and cooperation of renewable energy are considered important factors of the energy market. Empirical results show that GPR negatively affects GBs in three different subperiods. Tense geopolitical situations caused fluctuations in oil prices and reduced market participants’ interest in green bonds. On the other hand, the alleviation of GPR has promoted renewable energy cooperation and increased demand for green bonds. In contrast, GBs have both positive and negative effects on GPR. Green bonds guarantee the financial needs of energy transformation, enhance energy security, and lower GPR. However, competition for renewable energy resources will lead to new geopolitical conflicts. The time-varying heterogeneity for the causalities and the bidirectional intensity are clearly identified to provide new insights for existing theoretical research. Thus, understanding the causalities during subperiods is beneficial for market participants to make better decisions to prevent geopolitical conflicts and promote the development of the green bond market.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Kai-Hua & Wen, Cui-Ping & Liu, Hong-Wen & Liu, Lu, 2023. "Promotion or hindrance? Exploring the bidirectional causality between geopolitical risk and green bonds from an energy perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:85:y:2023:i:pb:s0301420723006773
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103966
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Geopolitical risk; Green bonds; Time-varying causalities; Rolling window;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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