IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v222y2024ics0960148123016786.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Not all are alike: Assessing the effect of geopolitical risk on regional renewable energy development in China

Author

Listed:
  • Lee, Chi-Chuan
  • Lee, Chien-Chiang

Abstract

Frequent recent episodes of geopolitical risk have spurred scholarly interest in its economic and environmental implications. Compared with previous research, this study constructed a panel data set of China's 30 provinces/municipalities to assess how geopolitical risk affects the development of renewable energy. The results of both linear and nonlinear analysis reveal that the effect of geopolitical uncertainty is not alike and is region- and state-dependent. Compared to its effect in China's eastern and central regions, geopolitical risk exerts a negative effect on renewable energy development in the western region. This negative effect tends to be more pronounced in areas characterized by relatively weak economic and social conditions. We also observe a threshold effect between them, as geopolitical risk typically weakens (enhances) renewable energy development when the economic condition is at a lower (higher) level. Finally, a sound financial system oriented toward “going green” and a stronger environment of technological innovation lessen the harmful effect of geopolitical risk. These findings provide targeted insights for policymakers seeking to improve local economic conditions, promote energy transition, balance regional energy inequality, and realize sustainable development.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2024. "Not all are alike: Assessing the effect of geopolitical risk on regional renewable energy development in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:222:y:2024:i:c:s0960148123016786
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2023.119763
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148123016786
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2023.119763?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yao, Yao & Ivanovski, Kris & Inekwe, John & Smyth, Russell, 2019. "Human capital and energy consumption: Evidence from OECD countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    2. Sweidan, Osama D., 2021. "Is the geopolitical risk an incentive or obstacle to renewable energy deployment? Evidence from a panel analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 377-384.
    3. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Fuhao & Lou, Runchi & Wang, Keying, 2023. "How does green finance drive the decarbonization of the economy? Empirical evidence from China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 671-684.
    4. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    5. Gene M. Grossman & Alan B. Krueger, 1995. "Economic Growth and the Environment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(2), pages 353-377.
    6. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Trabelsi, Nader & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Nasreen, Samia & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2023. "An empirical analysis of the dynamic relationship between clean and dirty energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    7. Chi-Chuan Lee & Jian Zhang & Chin-Hsien Yu & Lei Fang, 2023. "How Does Geopolitical Risk Affect Corporate Innovation? Evidence from China’s Listed Companies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(7), pages 2217-2233, May.
    8. Zheng, Huanyu & Song, Malin & Shen, Zhiyang, 2021. "The evolution of renewable energy and its impact on carbon reduction in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    9. Aisen, Ari & Veiga, Francisco José, 2013. "How does political instability affect economic growth?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 151-167.
    10. Can Şener, Şerife Elif & Sharp, Julia L. & Anctil, Annick, 2018. "Factors impacting diverging paths of renewable energy: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 2335-2342.
    11. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "How does green finance affect green total factor productivity? Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    12. Ehsan Rasoulinezhad & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Jinsok Sung & Nisit Panthamit, 2020. "Geopolitical Risk and Energy Transition in Russia: Evidence from ARDL Bounds Testing Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-17, March.
    13. Huang, Hongyun & Mbanyele, William & Wang, Fengrong & Song, Malin & Wang, Yuzhang, 2022. "Climbing the quality ladder of green innovation: Does green finance matter?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    14. Chak Hung Jack Cheng & Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu, 2018. "How important are global geopolitical risks to emerging countries?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 156, pages 305-325.
    15. Seo, Myung Hwan & Shin, Yongcheol, 2016. "Dynamic panels with threshold effect and endogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 195(2), pages 169-186.
    16. Zhu, Xuehong & Ding, Qian & Chen, Jinyu, 2022. "How does critical mineral trade pattern affect renewable energy development? The mediating role of renewable energy technological progress," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    17. Lin, Chia-Yang & Chau, Ka Yin & Tran, Trung Kien & Sadiq, Muhammad & Van, Le & Hien Phan, Thi Thu, 2022. "Development of renewable energy resources by green finance, volatility and risk: Empirical evidence from China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(P1), pages 821-831.
    18. Dimnwobi, Stephen Kelechi & Madichie, Chekwube V. & Ekesiobi, Chukwunonso & Asongu, Simplice A., 2022. "Financial development and renewable energy consumption in Nigeria," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 668-677.
    19. Song, Malin & Zheng, Huanyu & Shen, Zhiyang & Chen, Boyang, 2023. "How financial technology affects energy transformation in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    20. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Song, Hepeng & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2023. "Assessing the effect of green finance on energy inequality in China via household-level analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    21. Liu, Fangying & Su, Chi Wei & Qin, Meng & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2023. "Winner or loser? The bidirectional impact between geopolitical risk and energy transition from the renewable energy perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    22. Bourcet, Clémence, 2020. "Empirical determinants of renewable energy deployment: A systematic literature review," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    23. Selmi, Refk & Bouoiyour, Jamal, 2020. "Arab geopolitics in turmoil: Implications of Qatar-Gulf crisis for business," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 100-119.
    24. Sohag, Kazi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Mariev, Oleg & Safonova, Yulia, 2022. "Do geopolitical events transmit opportunity or threat to green markets? Decomposed measures of geopolitical risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    25. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Song, Hepeng & An, Jiafu, 2024. "The impact of green finance on energy transition: Does climate risk matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    26. Mohsin, Muhammad & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Iqbal, Nadeem & Saydaliev, Hayot Berk, 2022. "The role of technological progress and renewable energy deployment in green economic growth," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 777-787.
    27. Wei, Xiaobo & Mohsin, Muhammad & Zhang, Qiongxin, 2022. "Role of foreign direct investment and economic growth in renewable energy development," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 828-837.
    28. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    29. Abbas, Jawad & Wang, Lisu & Ben Belgacem, Samira & Pawar, Puja Sunil & Najam, Hina & Abbas, Jaffar, 2023. "Investment in renewable energy and electricity output: Role of green finance, environmental tax, and geopolitical risk: Empirical evidence from China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    30. Wang, Kai-Hua & Wen, Cui-Ping & Liu, Hong-Wen & Liu, Lu, 2023. "Promotion or hindrance? Exploring the bidirectional causality between geopolitical risk and green bonds from an energy perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    31. Li, Zeyun & Kuo, Tsung-Hsien & Siao-Yun, Wei & The Vinh, Luu, 2022. "Role of green finance, volatility and risk in promoting the investments in Renewable Energy Resources in the post-covid-19," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    32. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Yuan, Zihao, 2024. "Impact of energy poverty on public health: A non-linear study from an international perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    33. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Yuan, Zihao & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2023. "A nonlinear analysis of the impacts of information and communication technologies on environmental quality: A global perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    34. Yahya, Farzan & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2023. "Disentangling the asymmetric effect of financialization on the green output gap," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    35. Tang, Xinmeng & Zhou, Xiaoguang, 2023. "Impact of green finance on renewable energy development: A spatiotemporal consistency perspective," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 320-337.
    36. Song, Malin & Xie, Qianjiao & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Yao, Xin, 2023. "Economic growth and security from the perspective of natural resource assets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    37. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Yuan, Zihao & Lee, Chi-Chuan & Chang, Yu-Fang, 2022. "The impact of renewable energy technology innovation on energy poverty: Does climate risk matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    38. Cheng, Yuanyuan & Yao, Xin, 2021. "Carbon intensity reduction assessment of renewable energy technology innovation in China: A panel data model with cross-section dependence and slope heterogeneity," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    39. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Zhang, Jian & Hou, Shanshuai, 2023. "The impact of regional renewable energy development on environmental sustainability in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    40. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "What are the categories of geopolitical risks that could drive oil prices higher? Acts or threats?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    41. Gong, Xu & Sun, Yi & Du, Zhili, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and China's oil security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    42. Dong, Chunlong & Wu, Hao & Zhou, Jianwen & Lin, Huifang & Chang, Lei, 2023. "Role of renewable energy investment and geopolitical risk in green finance development: Empirical evidence from BRICS countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 234-241.
    43. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Tang, Huayun & Li, Ding, 2022. "The roles of oil shocks and geopolitical uncertainties on China’s green bond returns," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 494-505.
    44. Alkathery, Mohammed A. & Chaudhuri, Kausik & Nasir, Muhammad Ali, 2022. "Implications of clean energy, oil and emissions pricing for the GCC energy sector stock," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    45. Qin, Yun & Hong, Kairong & Chen, Jinyu & Zhang, Zitao, 2020. "Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on energy returns and volatility under different market conditions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Hai-Jie & Zheng, Mei-Qi & Yin, Hua-Tang & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2024. "Green innovation, industrial structure and urban eco-efficiency in Chinese cities," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1011-1024.
    2. Zhang, Xiuqi & Meng, Xiangyu & Su, Chi Wei, 2024. "The security of energy import: Do economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk really matter?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 377-388.
    3. Zhao, Congyu & Dong, Kangyin & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2024. "Carbon lock-in endgame: Can energy trilemma eradication contribute to decarbonization?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    4. Tian, Lihui & Li, Xin & Lee, Cheng-Wen & Spulbăr, Cristi, 2024. "Investigating the asymmetric impact of artificial intelligence on renewable energy under climate policy uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    5. Zhang, Jian & Yu, Chin-Hsien & Zhao, Jinsong & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2025. "How does corporate digital transformation affect green innovation? Evidence from China's enterprise data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    6. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Abdullah, Mohammad & Dankwah, Boakye & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2024. "Asymmetric dynamics between the Baltic Dry Index and financial markets during major global economic events," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    7. Li, Biao & Xie, Bai-Chen & Yu, Xiao-Chen & She, Zhen-Yu & Hu, Wenhao, 2025. "Does the incentive policy for renewable energy grid connection affect the technical efficiency of power grid companies? Empirical analysis based on China and Japan," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 28-47.
    8. Luo, Heng & Sun, Ying & Tao, Xiaosha & Tan, Wenwu & Kamarudin, Fakarudin, 2024. "Effects of global value chains on energy efficiency in G20 countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    9. Lin, Boqiang & Zhang, Zongyou, 2025. "Geopolitics of renewable energy development: The role of energy metals," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    10. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wu, Zhihang, 2025. "Developing renewable energy in the face of extreme climate: Implications of tertiarization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
    11. Qiming Zhong & Qinghua Song & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2024. "Managing crash risks through supply chain transparency: evidence from China," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-31, December.
    12. Yang, Xiuyun & Shafiq, Muhammad Nouman & Sharif, Arshian & Gillani, Seemab & Zeng, Xubin, 2024. "Balancing progress and preservation: analyzing the role of technological innovation in mitigating environmental degradation caused by energy consumption in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 391-409.
    13. Chishti, Muhammad Zubair & Xia, Xiqiang & Du, Anna Min & Özkan, Oktay, 2025. "Digital financial inclusion, the belt and road initiative, and the Paris agreement: Impacts on energy transition grid costs," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    14. He, Zhi-Wen & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2025. "The impact of geopolitical risks on the renewable energy transition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Zhang, Jian & Hou, Shanshuai, 2023. "The impact of regional renewable energy development on environmental sustainability in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Wang, Kai-Hua & Wen, Cui-Ping & Liu, Hong-Wen & Liu, Lu, 2023. "Promotion or hindrance? Exploring the bidirectional causality between geopolitical risk and green bonds from an energy perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    3. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wu, Zhihang, 2025. "Developing renewable energy in the face of extreme climate: Implications of tertiarization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
    4. Liu, Fangying & Su, Chi Wei & Qin, Meng & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2023. "Winner or loser? The bidirectional impact between geopolitical risk and energy transition from the renewable energy perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    5. Hille, Erik, 2023. "Europe's energy crisis: Are geopolitical risks in source countries of fossil fuels accelerating the transition to renewable energy?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
    6. Ahmed, Faroque & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Sohag, Kazi & Islam, Md. Monirul & Zeqiraj, Veton, 2024. "Global, local, or glocal? Unravelling the interplay of geopolitical risks and financial stress," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. Sweidan, Osama D., 2021. "Is the geopolitical risk an incentive or obstacle to renewable energy deployment? Evidence from a panel analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 377-384.
    8. Sweidan, Osama D. & Elbargathi, Khadiga, 2023. "Economic diversification in Saudi Arabia: Comparing the impact of oil prices, geopolitical risk, and government expenditures," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 13-24.
    9. Osama D. Sweidan, 2023. "The Effect of Geopolitical Risk on Income Inequality: Evidence from a Panel Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 47-66, June.
    10. Tang, Yumei & Chen, Xihui Haviour & Sarker, Provash Kumer & Baroudi, Sarra, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks and uncertainties on green bond markets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    11. Lin, Tao & Zhang, Ling & Li, Jianglong, 2024. "Coupling and coordinated development of green finance and renewable energy industry in China: Spatiotemporal differentiation and driving factors," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    12. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Song, Hepeng & An, Jiafu, 2024. "The impact of green finance on energy transition: Does climate risk matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    13. Chen, Zhuoyi & Liu, Yuanyuan & Zhang, Hongwei, 2024. "Can geopolitical risks impact the long-run correlation between crude oil and clean energy markets? Evidence from a regime-switching analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    14. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Fuhao & Chang, Yu-Fang, 2023. "Does green finance promote renewable energy? Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    15. Sweidan, Osama D. & Elbargathi, Khadiga, 2022. "The effect of oil rent on economic development in Saudi Arabia: Comparing the role of globalization and the international geopolitical risk," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    16. Shao, Hanhua & Wang, Yaning & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wen, Huwei, 2024. "How does political stability affect renewable energy finance? International evidence," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    17. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Li, Mingyue & Li, Xinghao & Song, Hepeng, 2025. "More green digital finance with less energy poverty? The key role of climate risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    18. Lin, Boqiang & Zhang, Zongyou, 2025. "Geopolitics of renewable energy development: The role of energy metals," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    19. Yang, Tianle & Dong, Qingyuan & Du, Min & Du, Qunyang, 2023. "Geopolitical risks, oil price shocks and inflation: Evidence from a TVP–SV–VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    20. Sohag, Kazi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Mariev, Oleg & Safonova, Yulia, 2022. "Do geopolitical events transmit opportunity or threat to green markets? Decomposed measures of geopolitical risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:222:y:2024:i:c:s0960148123016786. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.