IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v131y2024ics0140988324000999.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Geopolitical risk: An opportunity or a threat to the green bond market?

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Fangying
  • Qin, Chuan
  • Qin, Meng
  • Stefea, Petru
  • Norena-Chavez, Diego

Abstract

Against the backdrop of growing political instability, the interaction between green bond prices (GBP) and geopolitical risk (GPR) has attracted widespread attention. By employing the rolling-window Granger causality method, we probe their dynamic relationship and investigate GPR's role in shaping green bond (GB) market prospects. Our outcomes disclose that GBP is positively and negatively affected by GPR. The favourable effect suggests that GPR creates an opportunity for the GB market development, which also reveals the significance of GB as a hedge asset in times of geopolitical turmoil. However, high GPR can raise investors' concerns about the GB market outlook, and the reduction in investment demand causes GBP to decline. In contrast, GBP produces a favourable shock in GPR, as interest competition for renewable energy backed by GB will exacerbate the outbreak of geopolitical conflicts. In the context of geopolitical turmoil, investors can include GB in their portfolios to mitigate external shocks from the geopolitical environment. Moreover, governments can predict GPR changes by grasping the GB market fluctuations, thereby reducing the adverse effects triggered by geopolitical shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Fangying & Qin, Chuan & Qin, Meng & Stefea, Petru & Norena-Chavez, Diego, 2024. "Geopolitical risk: An opportunity or a threat to the green bond market?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:131:y:2024:i:c:s0140988324000999
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107391
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988324000999
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107391?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ehsan Rasoulinezhad & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Jinsok Sung & Nisit Panthamit, 2020. "Geopolitical Risk and Energy Transition in Russia: Evidence from ARDL Bounds Testing Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-17, March.
    2. Chishti, Muhammad Zubair & Sinha, Avik & Zaman, Umer & Shahzad, Umer, 2023. "Exploring the dynamic connectedness among energy transition and its drivers: Understanding the moderating role of global geopolitical risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    3. Liu, Fangying & Su, Chi Wei & Tao, Ran & Umar, Muhammad, 2023. "The instability of U.S. economic policy: A hindrance or a stimulus to green financing?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 33-46.
    4. Dong, Xiyong & Xiong, Youlin & Nie, Siyue & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2023. "Can bonds hedge stock market risks? Green bonds vs conventional bonds," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    5. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Aikins Abakah, Emmanuel Joel & Gabauer, David & Dwumfour, Richard Adjei, 2022. "Dynamic spillover effects among green bond, renewable energy stocks and carbon markets during COVID-19 pandemic: Implications for hedging and investments strategies," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    6. Arif, Muhammad & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Farid, Saqib & Nepal, Rabindra & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2022. "Diversifier or more? Hedge and safe haven properties of green bonds during COVID-19," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    7. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    8. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    9. Wang, Kai-Hua & Wen, Cui-Ping & Liu, Hong-Wen & Liu, Lu, 2023. "Promotion or hindrance? Exploring the bidirectional causality between geopolitical risk and green bonds from an energy perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    10. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2010. "Oil price dynamics and speculation: A multivariate financial approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 363-372, March.
    11. Ghazi Shukur & Panagiotis Mantalos, 2000. "A simple investigation of the Granger-causality test in integrated-cointegrated VAR systems," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(8), pages 1021-1031.
    12. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
    13. Demir, Ender & Danisman, Gamze Ozturk, 2021. "The impact of economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks on bank credit," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    14. Milan Christian De Wet, 2023. "Geopolitical Risks and Yield Dynamics in the Australian Sovereign Bond Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-16, February.
    15. Xia, Yufei & Shi, Zhengxu & Du, Xiaoying & Niu, Mengyi & Cai, Rongjiang, 2023. "Can green assets hedge against economic policy uncertainty? Evidence from China with portfolio implications," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    16. Chi Wei Su & Yingfeng Chen & Jinyan Hu & Tsangyao Chang & Muhammad Umar, 2023. "Can the green bond market enter a new era under the fluctuation of oil price?," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 536-561, December.
    17. Tian, Hao & Long, Shaobo & Li, Zixuan, 2022. "Asymmetric effects of climate policy uncertainty, infectious diseases-related uncertainty, crude oil volatility, and geopolitical risks on green bond prices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    18. Ren, Xiaohang & Li, Jingyao & He, Feng & Lucey, Brian, 2023. "Impact of climate policy uncertainty on traditional energy and green markets: Evidence from time-varying granger tests," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    19. Smales, L.A., 2021. "Geopolitical risk and volatility spillovers in oil and stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 358-366.
    20. Yang, Jianlei & Yang, Chunpeng, 2021. "The impact of mixed-frequency geopolitical risk on stock market returns," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 226-240.
    21. Tang, Yumei & Chen, Xihui Haviour & Sarker, Provash Kumer & Baroudi, Sarra, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks and uncertainties on green bond markets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    22. Yong Wang & Changyang Liu & Gaoyi Wang, 2020. "Geopolitical Risk Revealed in International Investment and World Trade," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(2), pages 133-154, June.
    23. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Tang, Huayun & Li, Ding, 2022. "The roles of oil shocks and geopolitical uncertainties on China’s green bond returns," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 494-505.
    24. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Li, Yong-Yi, 2021. "Oil price shocks, geopolitical risks, and green bond market dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    25. Du, Yuqiu & Wang, Wendi, 2023. "The role of green financing, agriculture development, geopolitical risk, and natural resource on environmental pollution in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    26. Terence Tai Leung Chong & Xiaoyang Li, 2019. "Understanding the China–US trade war: causes, economic impact, and the worst-case scenario," Economic and Political Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 185-202, April.
    27. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Karim, Sitara & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Junttila, Juha, 2022. "Small fish in big ponds: Connections of green finance assets to commodity and sectoral stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    28. Sohag, Kazi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Mariev, Oleg & Safonova, Yulia, 2022. "Do geopolitical events transmit opportunity or threat to green markets? Decomposed measures of geopolitical risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    29. Imran, Zulfiqar Ali & Ahad, Muhammad, 2023. "Safe-haven properties of green bonds for industrial sectors (GICS) in the United States: Evidence from Covid-19 pandemic and Global Financial Crisis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 408-423.
    30. Doğan, Buhari & Trabelsi, Nader & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Ghosh, Sudeshna, 2023. "Dynamic dependence and causality between crude oil, green bonds, commodities, geopolitical risks, and policy uncertainty," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 36-62.
    31. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Ozdemir, 2013. "The export-output growth nexus in Japan: a bootstrap rolling window approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 639-660, April.
    32. Marques, António Cardoso & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Pereira, Diogo André, 2018. "Have fossil fuels been substituted by renewables? An empirical assessment for 10 European countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 257-265.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Kai-Hua & Wen, Cui-Ping & Liu, Hong-Wen & Liu, Lu, 2023. "Promotion or hindrance? Exploring the bidirectional causality between geopolitical risk and green bonds from an energy perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    2. Tang, Yumei & Chen, Xihui Haviour & Sarker, Provash Kumer & Baroudi, Sarra, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks and uncertainties on green bond markets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    3. Bouri, Elie & Gök, Remzi & Gemi̇ci̇, Eray & Kara, Erkan, 2024. "Do geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, and oil implied volatility drive assets across quantiles and time-horizons?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 137-154.
    4. Kong, Fanna & Gao, Zhuoqiong & Oprean-Stan, Camelia, 2023. "Green bond in China: An effective hedge against global supply chain pressure?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    5. Sheenan, Lisa, 2023. "Green bonds, conventional bonds and geopolitical risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    6. Liu, Fangying & Su, Chi Wei & Qin, Meng & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2023. "Winner or loser? The bidirectional impact between geopolitical risk and energy transition from the renewable energy perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    7. Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Pirtea, Marilen Gabriel & Dumitrescu Peculea, Adelina, 2023. "The essential role of Russian geopolitics: A fresh perception into the gold market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    8. Su, Chi-Wei & Qin, Meng & Tao, Ran & Shao, Xue-Feng & Albu, Lucian Liviu & Umar, Muhammad, 2020. "Can Bitcoin hedge the risks of geopolitical events?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    9. Su, Chi-Wei & Wang, Dan & Mirza, Nawazish & Zhong, Yifan & Umar, Muhammad, 2023. "The impact of consumer confidence on oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    10. Qin, Meng & Hu, Wei & Qi, Xinzhou & Chang, Tsangyao, 2024. "Do the benefits outweigh the disadvantages? Exploring the role of artificial intelligence in renewable energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    11. Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Umar, Muhammad, 2023. "Blockchain: A carbon-neutral facilitator or an environmental destroyer?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 604-615.
    12. Kai-Hua Wang & Jia-Min Kan & Cui-Feng Jiang & Chi-Wei Su, 2022. "Is Geopolitical Risk Powerful Enough to Affect Carbon Dioxide Emissions? Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-16, June.
    13. Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Tao, Ran & Umar, Muhammad, 2020. "Is factionalism a push for gold price?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    14. Mensi, Walid & Selmi, Refk & Al-Kharusi, Sami & Belghouthi, Houssem Eddine & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2024. "Connectedness between green bonds, conventional bonds, oil, heating oil, natural gas, and petrol: new evidence during bear and bull market scenarios," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    15. Su, Chi-Wei & Pang, Lidong & Umar, Muhammad & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Moldovan, Nicoleta-Claudia, 2022. "Does gold's hedging uncertainty aura fade away?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    16. Zhang, Jilu & Guxue, Kaicheng, 2024. "Fostering sustainability: Exploring natural resources, mineral resources, and their impact on carbon reduction, economic growth," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    17. Sun, Yanpeng & Song, Yuru & Long, Chi & Qin, Meng & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2023. "How to improve global environmental governance? Lessons learned from climate risk and climate policy uncertainty," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1666-1676.
    18. Yingying Xu & Zhi‐Xin Liu & Chi‐Wei Su & Jaime Ortiz, 2019. "Gold and inflation: Expected inflation effect or carrying cost effect?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 380-398, December.
    19. Liu, Tie-Ying & Su, Chi-Wei, 2021. "Is transportation improving urbanization in China?," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    20. Doğan, Buhari & Trabelsi, Nader & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Ghosh, Sudeshna, 2023. "Dynamic dependence and causality between crude oil, green bonds, commodities, geopolitical risks, and policy uncertainty," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 36-62.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:131:y:2024:i:c:s0140988324000999. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.