IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v77y2025ipas0275531925001874.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploring the hedging performance of non-fungible token: Novel evidence from world uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Umar, Muhammad
  • Qin, Meng
  • Su, Chi-Wei

Abstract

The study underscores the importance of global uncertainty in shaping a valuable non-fungible token (NFT) portfolio, linking the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) with the Non-Fungible Token Index (NFTI) through various methods to explore their relationship. Following the quantitative discussions, we discover that favourable and adverse effects exist of WUI on NFTI, which is not consistent with the inter-temporal capital asset pricing model. The favourable effects suggest that the non-fungible token market is considered a safe haven to hedge against uncertainty across the globe. However, the adverse impacts of WUI on NFTI cannot support this opinion, and the hedging performance of non-fungible tokens has almost disappeared in recent years. In turn, the favourable influences from NFTI to WUI underline that the former is viewed as a predictive indicator of the latter, indicating that the non-fungible token market might mirror the uncertainty worldwide.

Suggested Citation

  • Umar, Muhammad & Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei, 2025. "Exploring the hedging performance of non-fungible token: Novel evidence from world uncertainty," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:77:y:2025:i:pa:s0275531925001874
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2025.102931
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0275531925001874
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2025.102931?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2005. "Small sample properties of forecasts from autoregressive models under structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 183-217.
    2. Imran Yousaf & Manel Youssef & Mariya Gubareva, 2025. "Return and Volatility Spillovers Between Non-fungible Tokens and Conventional Currencies: Evidence from the TVP–VAR Model," Springer Books, in: Gang Kou & Yongqiang Li & Zongyi Zhang & J. Leon Zhao & Zhi Zhuo (ed.), Blockchain, Crypto Assets, and Financial Innovation, pages 326-351, Springer.
    3. Wang, Xiaojuan & Shi, Benye, 2022. "Transmission and Diffusion Effect of Sino-US Trade Friction along Global Value Chains," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    4. Ho, Kin-Hon & Law, Monica & Hou, Yun & Chan, Tse-Tin, 2024. "Spillover analysis on NFTs, NFT-affiliated tokens and NFT submarkets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    5. Chandra, Yanto, 2022. "Non-fungible token-enabled entrepreneurship: A conceptual framework," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
    6. Chalmers, Dominic & Fisch, Christian & Matthews, Russell & Quinn, William & Recker, Jan, 2022. "Beyond the bubble: Will NFTs and digital proof of ownership empower creative industry entrepreneurs?," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    7. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    8. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    9. Umar, Zaghum & Usman, Muhammad & Choi, Sun-Yong & Rice, John, 2023. "Diversification benefits of NFTs for conventional asset investors: Evidence from CoVaR with higher moments and optimal hedge ratios," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    10. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2010. "Oil price dynamics and speculation: A multivariate financial approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 363-372, March.
    11. Qin, Meng & Hu, Wei & Qi, Xinzhou & Chang, Tsangyao, 2024. "Do the benefits outweigh the disadvantages? Exploring the role of artificial intelligence in renewable energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    12. Su, Chi-Wei & Yang, Shengjie & Qin, Meng & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2023. "Gold vs bitcoin: Who can resist panic in the U.S.?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    13. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    14. Yousaf, Imran & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "Connectedness of non-fungible tokens and conventional cryptocurrencies with metals," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    15. Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Emawtee & Do, Hung & Hu, Xiaolu & Zhong, Angel, 2022. "Sentiment and stock market connectedness: Evidence from the U.S. – China trade war," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    16. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
    17. Zhang, Wenting & Liu, Tiantian & Zhang, Yulian & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2024. "Can NFTs hedge the risk of traditional assets after the COVID-19 pandemic?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    18. Donald W. K. Andrews, 2003. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point: A Corrigendum," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 395-397, January.
    19. Sun, Yanpeng & Song, Yuru & Long, Chi & Qin, Meng & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2023. "How to improve global environmental governance? Lessons learned from climate risk and climate policy uncertainty," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1666-1676.
    20. Bejaoui, Azza & Frikha, Wajdi & Jeribi, Ahmed & Bariviera, Aurelio F., 2023. "Connectedness between emerging stock markets, gold, cryptocurrencies, DeFi and NFT: Some new evidence from wavelet analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 619(C).
    21. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    22. Aharon, David Y. & Demir, Ender, 2022. "NFTs and asset class spillovers: Lessons from the period around the COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    23. Yencha, Christopher, 2023. "Spatial heterogeneity and non-fungible token sales: Evidence from Decentraland LAND sales," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    24. Zhang, Zhiyuan & Sun, Qinglin & Ma, Yongfan, 2022. "The hedge and safe haven properties of non-fungible tokens (NFTs): Evidence from the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    25. Huang, Yi & Lin, Chen & Liu, Sibo & Tang, Heiwai, 2023. "Trade networks and firm value: Evidence from the U.S.-China trade war," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    26. Yousaf, Imran & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2022. "Static and dynamic connectedness between NFTs, Defi and other assets: Portfolio implication," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    27. Youcef Maouchi & Mohamed Fakhfekh & Lanouar Charfeddine & Ahmed Jeribi, 2024. "Is digital gold a hedge, safe haven, or diversifier? An analysis of cryptocurrencies, DeFi tokens, and NFTs," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(60), pages 9158-9173, December.
    28. Bao, Te & Ma, Mengzhong & Wen, Yonggang, 2023. "Herding in the non-fungible token (NFT) market," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    29. Qin, Meng & Su, Ai-Hsuan & Li, Ruifeng & Su, Chi-Wei, 2024. "Speculation, climate or pandemic: Who drives the Chinese herbal medicine bubbles?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    30. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    31. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Arslanturk, Yalcin, 2010. "Economic growth and energy consumption causal nexus viewed through a bootstrap rolling window," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1398-1410, November.
    32. Xia, Yufei & Li, Jinglong & Fu, Yating, 2022. "Are non-fungible tokens (NFTs) different asset classes? Evidence from quantile connectedness approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    33. Dou, Jie & Mirza, Nawazish & Umar, Muhammad & Horobet, Alexandra, 2025. "ESG uncertainties and valuation implications: Evidence from the EU banking sector," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    34. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    35. Qin, Meng & Zhu, Yujie & Xie, Xin & Shao, Xuefeng & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2024. "The impact of climate risk on technological progress under the fourth industrial era," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    36. Maouchi, Youcef & Charfeddine, Lanouar & El Montasser, Ghassen, 2022. "Understanding digital bubbles amidst the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from DeFi and NFTs," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    37. Qin, Meng & Su, Yun Hsuan & Zhao, Zhengtang & Mirza, Nawazish, 2023. "The politics of climate: Does factionalism impede U.S. carbon neutrality?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 954-966.
    38. Kumar, Anoop S & Padakandla, Steven Raj, 2023. "Do NFTs act as a good hedge and safe haven against Cryptocurrency fluctuations?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    39. Ghazi Shukur & Panagiotis Mantalos, 2000. "A simple investigation of the Granger-causality test in integrated-cointegrated VAR systems," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(8), pages 1021-1031.
    40. Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Tao, Ran, 2021. "BitCoin: A new basket for eggs?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 896-907.
    41. Wilson, Kathleen Bridget & Karg, Adam & Ghaderi, Hadi, 2022. "Prospecting non-fungible tokens in the digital economy: Stakeholders and ecosystem, risk and opportunity," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 65(5), pages 657-670.
    42. Urom, Christian & Ndubuisi, Gideon & Guesmi, Khaled, 2022. "Dynamic dependence and predictability between volume and return of Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs): The roles of market factors and geopolitical risks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    43. Wang, Jying-Nan & Lee, Yen-Hsien & Liu, Hung-Chun & Hsu, Yuan-Teng, 2023. "Dissecting returns of non-fungible tokens (NFTs): Evidence from CryptoPunks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    44. Wang, Yizhi, 2022. "Volatility spillovers across NFTs news attention and financial markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    45. BenMabrouk, Houda & Sassi, Syrine & Soltane, Feriel & Abid, Ilyes, 2024. "Connectedness and portfolio hedging between NFTs segments, American stocks and cryptocurrencies Nexus," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    46. Nobanee, Haitham & Ellili, Nejla Ould Daoud, 2023. "Non-fungible tokens (NFTs): A bibliometric and systematic review, current streams, developments, and directions for future research," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 460-473.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Meng QIN, 2024. "The essential role of U.S.-China tensions: a fresh insight into the gold market," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(641), W), pages 227-246, Winter.
    2. Proelss, Juliane & Sévigny, Stéphane & Schweizer, Denis, 2023. "GameFi: The perfect symbiosis of blockchain, tokens, DeFi, and NFTs?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    3. Su, Chi-Wei & Qin, Meng & Tao, Ran & Shao, Xue-Feng & Albu, Lucian Liviu & Umar, Muhammad, 2020. "Can Bitcoin hedge the risks of geopolitical events?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    4. Wei Su, Chi & Yue Song, Xin & Qin, Meng & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Umar, Muhammad, 2024. "Optimistic or pessimistic: How do investors impact the green bond market?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Wu, Jiawen & Li, Jing-Ping & Su, Chi-Wei, 2024. "Can green bond hedges climate policy uncertainty in the United States: New insights from novel time-varying causality and quantile-on-quantile methods?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1158-1176.
    6. Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Pirtea, Marilen Gabriel & Dumitrescu Peculea, Adelina, 2023. "The essential role of Russian geopolitics: A fresh perception into the gold market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    7. Yi WANG & Yiting XU & Yufei ZHONG, 2025. "Does Artificial Intelligence Invariably Enhance ESG Performance?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 24-40, July.
    8. Zhang, Xiaojing & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei & Qin, Meng & Umar, Muhammad, 2024. "Exploring the dynamic interaction between geopolitical risks and lithium prices: A time-varying analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    9. Sun, Yanpeng & Song, Yuru & Long, Chi & Qin, Meng & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2023. "How to improve global environmental governance? Lessons learned from climate risk and climate policy uncertainty," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1666-1676.
    10. Qin, Meng & Hu, Wei & Qi, Xinzhou & Chang, Tsangyao, 2024. "Do the benefits outweigh the disadvantages? Exploring the role of artificial intelligence in renewable energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    11. Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Umar, Muhammad, 2023. "Blockchain: A carbon-neutral facilitator or an environmental destroyer?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 604-615.
    12. Kai-Hua Wang & Jia-Min Kan & Cui-Feng Jiang & Chi-Wei Su, 2022. "Is Geopolitical Risk Powerful Enough to Affect Carbon Dioxide Emissions? Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-16, June.
    13. Su, Chi-Wei & Qin, Meng & Tao, Ran & Umar, Muhammad, 2020. "Financial implications of fourth industrial revolution: Can bitcoin improve prospects of energy investment?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    14. Yingying Xu & Zhi‐Xin Liu & Chi‐Wei Su & Jaime Ortiz, 2019. "Gold and inflation: Expected inflation effect or carrying cost effect?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 380-398, December.
    15. Qian Zhao & Chi-Wei Su & Jun-Mo Guo, 2024. "Does Technological Innovation Promote Renewable Energy Investment?," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(1), pages 21582440241, February.
    16. Wang, Kai-Hua & Wen, Cui-Ping & Liu, Hong-Wen & Liu, Lu, 2023. "Promotion or hindrance? Exploring the bidirectional causality between geopolitical risk and green bonds from an energy perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    17. Qin, Meng & Zhu, Yujie & Xie, Xin & Shao, Xuefeng & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2024. "The impact of climate risk on technological progress under the fourth industrial era," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    18. Su, Chi-Wei & Qin, Meng & Tao, Ran & Umar, Muhammad, 2020. "Does oil price really matter for the wage arrears in Russia?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    19. Su, Chi-Wei & Pang, Lidong & Umar, Muhammad & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Moldovan, Nicoleta-Claudia, 2022. "Does gold's hedging uncertainty aura fade away?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    20. Sun, Ting-Ting & Su, Chi-Wei & Mirza, Nawazish & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "How does trade policy uncertainty affect agriculture commodity prices?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:77:y:2025:i:pa:s0275531925001874. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.