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Expectations and Exchange Rate Policy

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  • Devereux, Michael B
  • Engel, Charles M

Abstract

Both empirical evidence and theoretical discussion have long emphasized the impact of `news' on exchange rates. In most exchange rate models, the exchange rate acts as an asset price, and as such responds to news about future returns on assets. But the exchange rate also plays a role in determining the relative price of non-durable goods when nominal goods prices are sticky. In this paper we argue that these two roles may conflict with one another. If news about future asset returns causes movements in current exchange rates, then when nominal prices are slow to adjust, this may cause changes in current relative goods prices that have no efficiency rationale. In this sense, anticipations of future shocks to fundamentals can cause current exchange rate misalignments. Friedman's (1953) case for unfettered flexible exchange rates is overturned when exchange rates are asset prices. We outline a series of models in which an optimal policy eliminates the effects of news on exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Devereux, Michael B & Engel, Charles M, 2006. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 5743, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5743
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. West, Kenneth D, 1988. "Dividend Innovations and Stock Price Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(1), pages 37-61, January.
    2. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 485-517, June.
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    9. Duarte, Margarida & Obstfeld, Maurice, 2008. "Monetary policy in the open economy revisited: The case for exchange-rate flexibility restored," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 949-957, October.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Filardo & Hans Genberg, 2010. "Monetary Policy Strategies in the Asia and Pacific Region: What Way Forward?," Working Papers id:3139, eSocialSciences.
    2. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Costs and Benefits of the EMU and Other Monetary Unions: An Overview of Recent Research," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 603-641, September.
    3. Jeffrey Frankel, 2007. "On The Rand: Determinants Of The South African Exchange Rate," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(3), pages 425-441, September.
    4. Matsumoto, Akito & Cova, Pietro & Pisani, Massimiliano & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2011. "News shocks and asset price volatility in general equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2132-2149.
    5. Jeffrey Frankel & Ben Smit & Federico Sturzenegger, 2008. "Fiscal and monetary policy in a commodity-based economy," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(4), pages 679-713, October.
    6. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2009. "Are valuation effects desirable from a global perspective?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 170-180, July.
    7. Andrew Filardo & Hans Genberg, 2012. "Monetary Policy Strategies in the Asia and Pacific Region: Which Way Forward?," Chapters,in: Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia, chapter 3 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Tille, Cédric & van Wincoop, Eric, 2008. "International Capital Flows under Dispersed Information: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 6989, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. repec:spt:apfiba:v::y:2018:i::f:8_2_5 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:spt:apfiba:v:8:y:2018:i:2:f:8_2_5 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2011. "Modeling Exchange Rates with Incomplete Information," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 11.03, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate; expectations; monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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