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The forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis reexamined: evidence from a new test

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  • Delcoure, Natalya
  • Barkoulas, John
  • Baum, Christopher F.
  • Chakraborty, Atreya

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  • Delcoure, Natalya & Barkoulas, John & Baum, Christopher F. & Chakraborty, Atreya, 2003. "The forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis reexamined: evidence from a new test," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 83-93, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:14:y:2003:i:1:p:83-93
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    1. Hodrick, Robert J. & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1984. "An investigation of risk and return in forward foreign exchange," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 5-29, April.
    2. Jeremy J. Siegel, 1972. "Risk, Interest Rates and the Forward Exchange," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 86(2), pages 303-309.
    3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    4. Hai, Weike & Mark, Nelson C & Wu, Yangru, 1997. "Understanding Spot and Forward Exchange Rate Regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(6), pages 715-734, Nov.-Dec..
    5. Hodrick, Robert J. & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1986. "The covariation of risk premiums and expected future spot exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1, Supple), pages 5-21, March.
    6. Martin D. D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 2017. "Trends in Excess Returns in Currency and Bond Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 2, pages 39-57, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Luintel, K. B. & Paudyal, K., 1998. "Common stochastic trends between forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 279-297, April.
    8. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    9. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    10. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Characterizing Predictable Components in Excess Returns on Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 467-509, June.
    11. Meese, Richard A & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "On Unit Roots and the Empirical Modeling of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1029-1035, September.
    12. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1994. "The long memory of the forward premium," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 565-571, October.
    13. Taylor, Mark P. & Sarno, Lucio, 1998. "The behavior of real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-312, December.
    14. Crowder, William J, 1994. "Foreign exchange market efficiency and common stochastic trends," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 551-564, October.
    15. Martin D. D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 2017. "Do Long-Term Swings in the Dollar Affect Estimates of the Risk Premia?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 3, pages 59-99, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    17. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. " Common Stochastic Trends in a System of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 167-181, March.
    18. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
    19. Copeland, Laurence S, 1991. "Cointegration Tests with Daily Exchange Rate Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 53(2), pages 185-198, May.
    20. Ngama, Yerima Lawan, 1992. "Testing the Efficiency of Thin Forward Foreign Exchange Markets: An Application of Instrumental Variable Multiple Regression with Integrated, I(1), Variables," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 60(2), pages 169-180, June.
    21. Alexakis, Panayotis & Apergis, Nicholas, 1996. "ARCH effects and cointegration: Is the foreign exchange market efficient?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 687-697, May.
    22. O'Connell, Paul G. J., 1998. "The overvaluation of purchasing power parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-19, February.
    23. Liu, Peter C. & Maddala, G. S., 1992. "Rationality of survey data and tests for market efficiency in the foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 366-381, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2010. "Testing the hypothesis of market efficiency in the Taiwan-US forward exchange market since 1990," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(1), pages 121-132.
    2. Patrick Minford & Zhirong Ou & Zheyi Zhu, 2021. "Can a small New Keynesian model of the world economy with risk‐pooling match the facts?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 1993-2021, April.
    3. Sebastian Gomez-Barrero & Julian A. Parra-Polania, 2014. "Central Bank Strategic Forecasting," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(4), pages 802-810, October.
    4. Serttas, Fatma Ozgu, 2010. "Essays on infinite-variance stable errors and robust estimation procedures," ISU General Staff Papers 201001010800002742, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Patrick Minford & Zhirong Ou & Zheyi Zhu, 2022. "Is there Consumer Risk-Pooling in the Open Economy? The Evidence Reconsidered," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 109-120, February.
    6. Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong & Zhu, Zheyi, 2023. "On the determination of the real exchange rate in free markets: do consumer risk-pooling and uncovered interest parity differ and fit?," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2023/2, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    7. Leo Krippner, 2006. "A Yield Curve Perspective on Uncovered Interest Parity," Working Papers in Economics 06/16, University of Waikato.
    8. Murphy, Austin, 2008. "An empirical investigation of investor expectations in the currency market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 108-133.
    9. Phungo, Muka & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2019. "An analysis of the unbiased forward rate hypothesis in developed and emerging economies," MPRA Paper 92222, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Fu, Hsuan & Luger, Richard, 2022. "Multiple testing of the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis across currencies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 232-245.

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