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Is there consumer risk-pooling in the open economy? The evidence reconsidered

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Abstract

We revisit the evidence on consumer risk-pooling and uncovered interest parity. Widely used singleequation tests are strongly biased against both. Using the full-model, Indirect Inference test, which is unbiased and has Goldilocks power by Monte Carlo experiments, we nd that both the risk-pooling hypothesis and its weaker UIP version are generally accepted as part of a full world DSGE model.The fact that the risk-pooling hypothesis, with its implication of strong cross-border consumer linkage,has passed this test with generally the highest p-value, suggests that it deserves serious attention from policy-makers looking for a relevant model to discuss international monetary and other business cycle issues.

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  • Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong & Zhu, Zheyi, 2020. "Is there consumer risk-pooling in the open economy? The evidence reconsidered," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2020/12, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2020/12
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    2. Chen, Haixia & Mai Le, Vo Phuong & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2025. "UK monetary policy in an estimated DSGE model with state-dependent price and wage contracts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    3. Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong & Zhu, Zheyi, 2023. "On the determination of the real exchange rate in free markets: do consumer risk-pooling and uncovered interest parity differ and fit?," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2023/2, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    4. Patrick Minford & Zhirong Ou & Zheyi Zhu, 2025. "Testing for Consumer Risk-Pooling in the Open Economy – further Results," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 901-920, July.
    5. Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael R. & Ou, Zhirong & Zhu, Zheyi, 2021. "The eurozone: what is to be done?," CEPR Discussion Papers 16313, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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