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Does the uncovered interest parity hold in short horizons?

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  • Levent, Korap

Abstract

In this article, one of the contemporaneous monetary theories of exchange rate determination, namely uncovered interest parity (UIP), is examined. The UIP hypothesis assumes that if capital is perfectly mobile, then investors around the world will be indifferent between holding their portfolios in domestic or foreign securities, because they obtain the same return from these assets. Based on a theoretical formulation, our ex post estimation results employing four developed countries exchange rates vis-á-vis US dollar indicate the failure of the UIP hypothesis using short-horizon interest differential and future spot exchange rate data, in line with most empirical papers in the economics literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Levent, Korap, 2010. "Does the uncovered interest parity hold in short horizons?," MPRA Paper 20788, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:20788
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 409-430, November.
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    5. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    6. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Uncovered Interest Parity in Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(2), pages 1-6.
    7. Razzaque Bhatti & Imad Moosa, 1995. "An alternative approach to testing uncovered interest parity," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(12), pages 478-481.
    8. Peter Isard, 2006. "Uncovered Interest Parity," IMF Working Papers 06/96, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Sarno,Lucio & Taylor,Mark P., 2003. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521485845, April.
    10. Huisman, Ronald & Koedijk, Kees & Kool, Clemens & Nissen, Francois, 1998. "Extreme support for uncovered interest parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 211-228, February.
    11. Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-192, Summer.
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    13. Beyaert, Arielle & Garcia-Solanes, Jose & Perez-Castejon, Juan J., 2007. "Uncovered interest parity with switching regimes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 189-202, March.
    14. Adolfo Sachsida & Roberto Ellery & Joanilio Rodolpho Teixeira, 2001. "Uncovered interest parity and the peso problem: the Brazilian case," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 179-181.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pippenger, John, 2017. "Forward Bias, The Failure Of Uncovered Interest Parity And Related Puzzles," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt2ff194s2, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    2. Özcan Karahan & Olcay Çolak, 2012. "Does Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Hold in Turkey?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(4), pages 386-394.
    3. Nath, Golaka, 2013. "The Spot Forward Exchange Rate Relation in Indian Foreign Exchange Market - An Analysis," MPRA Paper 51591, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Pippenger, John, 2015. "Forward Bias, Uncovered Interest Parity And Related Puzzles: The Role Of Monetary Policy," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt2cm6p186, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    5. Pippenger, John, 2011. "A Complete Solution To The Forward-Bias Puzzle," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt5gq9z4j0, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    6. Pippenger, John, 2012. "What Covered Interest Parity Implies about the Theory of Uncovered Interest Parity," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt0zk6t2hj, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncovered interest parity; GMM estimator;

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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