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Testing the uncovered interest parity using traded volatility, a time-varying risk premium and heterogeneous expectations

  • Sarantis, Nicholas
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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V9S-4M4CMRW-1/2/d51ccf2cf0920f42161707d310dfb117
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

    Volume (Year): 25 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 7 (November)
    Pages: 1168-1186

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:25:y:2006:i:7:p:1168-1186
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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    1. Jorion, Philippe, 1995. " Predicting Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 507-28, June.
    2. Ian Marsh & Menzie Chinn & Yin-Wong Cheung, 1999. "How do UK-Based Foreign Exchange Dealers Think Their Market Operates?," Working Papers wp99-21, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
    3. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1999. "Understanding Exchange Rate Volatility without the Contrivance of Macroeconomics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(459), pages F660-72, November.
    4. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
    5. Robert P. Flood & Nancy P. Marion, 1998. "Self-Fulfilling Risk Predictions; An Application to Speculative Attacks," IMF Working Papers 98/124, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Berk, Jan Marc & Knot, Klaas H. W., 2001. "Testing for long horizon UIP using PPP-based exchange rate expectations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 377-391, February.
    7. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 2000. "The forward premium anomaly is not as bad as you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 471-488, August.
    8. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 1991. "On Biases in the Measurement of Foreign Exchange Risk Premiums," NBER Working Papers 3861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. MacDonald, Ronald & Torrance, Thomas S, 1990. "Expectations Formation and Risk in Four Foreign Exchange Markets," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 544-61, July.
    10. McCallum, Bennett T, 1976. "Rational Expectations and the Natural Rate Hypothesis: Some Consistent Estimates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 43-52, January.
    11. Guy Meredith & Menzie D. Chinn, 1998. "Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity," NBER Working Papers 6797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Hall, S G, 1993. "Modelling the Sterling Effective Exchange Rate Using Expectations and Learning," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 61(3), pages 270-86, September.
    13. Allen, Helen & Taylor, Mark P, 1990. "Charts, Noise and Fundamentals in the London Foreign Exchange Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 49-59, Supplemen.
    14. Wolff, Christian C. P., 2000. "Measuring the forward foreign exchange risk premium: multi-country evidence from unobserved components models," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-8, January.
    15. Kenneth A. Froot, 1990. "Short Rates and Expected Asset Returns," NBER Working Papers 3247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Lewis, Karen K., 1995. "Puzzles in international financial markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 37, pages 1913-1971 Elsevier.
    17. Charles Engel, 1995. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Fisher, P G, et al, 1990. "Econometric Evaluation of the Exchange Rate in Models of the UK Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(403), pages 1230-44, December.
    19. Lyons, Richard K., 1988. "Tests of the foreign exchange risk premium using the expected second moments implied by option pricing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 91-108, March.
    20. Wickens, Michael R, 1982. "The Efficient Estimation of Econometric Models with Rational Expectations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 55-67, January.
    21. Cavaglia, Stefano M F G & Verschoor, Willem F C & Wolff, Christian C P, 1994. "On the Biasedness of Forward Foreign Exchange Rates: Irrationality or Risk Premia?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(3), pages 321-43, July.
    22. MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. " Expectations Formation and Risk in Three Financial Markets: Surveying What the Surveys Say," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 69-100, February.
    23. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1999. "Macroeconomic Implications of the Beliefs and Behavior of Foreign Exchange Traders," NBER Working Papers 7417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Kim, Inbae & Salemi, Michael K., 2000. "Estimation and simulation of risk premia in equity and foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 561-582, August.
    25. Marston, Richard C., 1997. "Tests of three parity conditions: Distinguishing risk premia and systematic forecast errors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 285-303, April.
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