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Modeling the horizon-dependent ex-ante risk premium in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from survey data

  • Prat, Georges
  • Uctum, Remzi

Using Consensus Economics survey data on experts’ expectations, we aim to model the 3- and 12-month ahead ex-ante risk premia on the JPY/USD and the GBP/USD exchange markets. For each market and at a given horizon, we show that the risk premium is well determined by the conditional expected variance of the change in the real exchange rate, agents’ real NMP in assets and a constant composite risk aversion coefficient, as suggested by a two-country portfolio asset pricing model. The expected variance depends on the past values of the observed variance and the unobservable real NMP is estimated as a state variable using the Kalman filter methodology. We found that the trends of our estimated horizon-specific NMPs are consistent with the ones of the observed short term aggregate NMPs calculated using the U.S. Treasury International Capital System dataset. Moreover, we show that the ex-post premia tend to adjust toward the ex-ante values, suggesting that experts’ beliefs provide a relevant information to the market. These results bring new responses to the difficulties reported by the widespread ex-post risk premium literature and enhances the usefulness of survey data in modeling the risk premium.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money.

Volume (Year): 23 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 33-54

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:23:y:2013:i:c:p:33-54
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