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Uncovered interest parity puzzle: does it really exist?

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  • Nikolaos Mylonidis
  • Maria Semertzidou

Abstract

Most studies indicate the violation of the Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) restrictions, and indeed, there are many who find a statistically significant and negative interest rate differential slope. This finding has now become known in international economics as the UIP puzzle. Using recent data on four major currencies vis-a-vis the US dollar and employing the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) technique, our estimation results indicate the absence of any relationship between the interest rate differential and the expected change in the exchange rate, rather than the presence of the UIP puzzle.

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  • Nikolaos Mylonidis & Maria Semertzidou, 2010. "Uncovered interest parity puzzle: does it really exist?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(10), pages 1023-1026.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:17:y:2010:i:10:p:1023-1026
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840902762696
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Ronald Macdonald & Mark P. Taylor, 1992. "Exchange Rate Economics: A Survey," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(1), pages 1-57, March.
    3. Sarantis, Nicholas, 2006. "Testing the uncovered interest parity using traded volatility, a time-varying risk premium and heterogeneous expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1168-1186, November.
    4. Bing Han, 2004. "Is the forward premium puzzle universal?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 131-134.
    5. Mr. Peter Isard, 2006. "Uncovered Interest Parity," IMF Working Papers 2006/096, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2022. "Exchange rate parities and Taylor rule deviations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(4), pages 1809-1835, October.
    2. zcan Karahan & Olcay olak, 2012. "Does Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Hold in Turkey?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(4), pages 386-394.
    3. Mehmet Altuntas, 2021. "The Interest Rate Parity in Fragile Five Countries: Evidence from Unit Root Tests with Breaks," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 8(2), pages 327-349, July.

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