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Exchange Rates and Long-Term Bonds

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  • Annika Alexius
  • Peter Sellin

Abstract

Tentative evidence suggests that the empiricalfailure of uncovered interest parity (UIP) is confined to short-term interest rates. Tests of UIP for long-term interest rates are however hampered by various data problems. By focusing on short investments in long-term bonds, these data problems can be avoided. We study the relationship between the US dollar - Deutsch Mark exchange rate and German and American bond rates. The hypothesis that expected returns to investments in bonds denominated in the two currencies are equal cannot be rejected. This result is not simply due to low power as the beta-coefficients are close to unity. For the corresponding short-term interest rates, the typical finding of a large and significantly negative beta-coefficient is confirmed.
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Suggested Citation

  • Annika Alexius & Peter Sellin, 2012. "Exchange Rates and Long-Term Bonds," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 114(3), pages 974-990, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:114:y:2012:i:3:p:974-990
    DOI: j.1467-9442.2012.01703.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Flandreau, Marc & Oosterlinck, Kim, 2012. "Was the emergence of the international gold standard expected? Evidence from Indian Government securities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 649-669.
    2. Chang-Chiang Chin & Huei-Mei Liang, 2009. "The long-run uncovered interest rate parity in view of a trading strategy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(21), pages 2727-2739.
    3. Maurice Obstfeld, 2009. "Time of Troubles: The Yen and Japan's Economy, 1985-2008," NBER Working Papers 14816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Yung, Julieta, 2014. "Can interest rate factors explain exchange rate fluctuations?," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 207, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. repec:kap:openec:v:29:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11079-017-9474-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Christoph Sax, 2006. "Interest Rates and Exchange Rate Movements: Analyzing Short-term Investments in Long-term Bonds," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 20(2), pages 205-220, June.
    7. Menzie D. Chinn & Yi Zhang, 2015. "Uncovered Interest Parity and Monetary Policy Near and Far from the Zero Lower Bound," NBER Working Papers 21159, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Norman C. Miller, 2014. "Exchange Rate Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14981.
    9. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2005. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity at Short and Long Horizons during the Post-Bretton Woods Era," NBER Working Papers 11077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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