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Expectations Hypotheses Tests and Predictive Regressions at Long Horizons


  • Rossi, Barbara


Many rational expectations models state that an economic variable is determined as the present value of future variables. These restrictions have traditionally been tested on VARs where variables appear either in levels (or cointegrating relationships) or first differences. Commonly used test statistics may lead to over-rejections in small samples in the presence of highly persistent variables. Similar problems occur in longhorizon predictive regressions. We propose an alternative method based on local-tounity asymptotic approximations. We apply this method to long-horizon Predictive Regressions, Uncovered Interest Rate Parity, the Term Structure, and the Permanent Income Hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Rossi, Barbara, 2005. "Expectations Hypotheses Tests and Predictive Regressions at Long Horizons," Working Papers 05-03, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:duk:dukeec:05-03

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. DiNardo, John & Fortin, Nicole M & Lemieux, Thomas, 1996. "Labor Market Institutions and the Distribution of Wages, 1973-1992: A Semiparametric Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1001-1044, September.
    2. Garry F. Barrett & Stephen G. Donald, 2003. "Consistent Tests for Stochastic Dominance," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 71-104, January.
    3. Behrman, Jere R., 1988. "Nutrition, health, birth order and seasonality : Intrahousehold allocation among children in rural India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 43-62, February.
    4. Gaurav Datt & Valerie Kozel & Martin Ravallion, 2003. "A Model-Based Assessment of India's Progress in Reducing Poverty in the 1990s," Monash Economics Working Papers archive-32, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    5. Russell Davidson & Jean-Yves Duclos, 2000. "Statistical Inference for Stochastic Dominance and for the Measurement of Poverty and Inequality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1435-1464, November.
    6. Filmer, Deon*Pritchett, Lant, 1998. "Estimating wealth effects without expenditure data - or tears : with an application to educational enrollments in states of India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1994, The World Bank.
    7. Siwan Anderson, 2003. "Why Dowry Payments Declined with Modernization in Europe but Are Rising in India," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(2), pages 269-310, April.
    8. Behrman, Jere R, 1988. "Intrahousehold Allocation of Nutrients in Rural India: Are Boys Favored? Do Parents Exhibit Inequality Aversion?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 32-54, March.
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    More about this item


    expectation hypotheses; present value models; long-horizon; local to unity;

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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