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Stochastic Trends, Deterministic Trends, and Business Cycle Turning Points


  • Gordon, Stephen


This study examines the relationship between specifications for long-run output patterns and specifications for business cycle dynamics. In an application to US GDP, it is found that inferences about the nature of the trend in output are not robust to changes in the specification for short-run fluctuations. Similarly, the choice of which model best describes the transitory movements in output depends on the way in which the trend is specified. The empirical analysis makes use of Bayesian methods to compare time series models for US GDP. Inspection of the predictive densities for the individual data points suggests that the information contained in the data is largely limited to the observations associated with business cycle turning points (c) 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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  • Gordon, Stephen, 1997. "Stochastic Trends, Deterministic Trends, and Business Cycle Turning Points," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 411-434, July-Aug..
  • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:12:y:1997:i:4:p:411-34

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Richard Blundell & Ian Walker, 1986. "A Life-Cycle Consistent Empirical Model of Family Labour Supply Using Cross-Section Data," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 539-558.
    2. Kilpatrick, Robert W, 1973. "The Income Elasticity of the Poverty Line," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 55(3), pages 327-332, August.
    3. Sawhill, Isabel V, 1988. "Poverty in the U.S.: Why Is It So Persistent?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 1073-1119, September.
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    5. Pollak, Robert A & Wales, Terence J, 1981. "Demographic Variables in Demand Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1533-1551, November.
    6. Kapteyn, Arie & Wansbeek, Tom & Buyze, Jeannine, 1980. "The dynamics of preference formation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 123-157, June.
    7. Pollak, Robert A & Wales, Terrence J, 1969. "Estimation of the Linear Expenditure System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(4), pages 611-628, October.
    8. Darrough, Masako N & Pollak, Robert A & Wales, Terence J, 1983. "Dynamic and Stochastic Structure: An Analysis of Three Time Series of Household Budget Studies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 274-281, May.
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    10. repec:adr:anecst:y:1988:i:9:p:03 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Blanciforti, Laura & Green, Richard, 1983. "An Almost Ideal Demand System Incorporating Habits: An Analysis of Expenditures on Food and Aggregate Commodity Groups," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 511-515, August.
    12. Kapteyn, Arie & Van Praag, Bernard M. S. & Van Herwaarden, Floor G., 1978. "Individual welfare functions and social reference spaces," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 173-177.
    13. Pashardes, Panos, 1986. "Myopic and Forward Looking Behavior in a Dynamic Demand System," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 27(2), pages 387-397, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy, 2007. "Modeling foreign exchange rates with jumps," Working Papers tecipa-279, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    2. Clements, M.P. & Krolzig, H-M., 1999. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisationand Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregression," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 522, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    3. Lars-Erik Öller & Lasse Koskinen, 2004. "A classifying procedure for signalling turning points," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 197-214.
    4. Clements, Michael P & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2003. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterization and Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 196-211, January.

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