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Growth patterns after the crisis: This time is not different

  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Scheide, Joachim

The recovery of the world economy is evolving with a considerable degree of heterogeneity across countries. While the recovery in emerging countries, in particular in Eastern Asia, was very pronounced, it was disappointingly slow in most advanced economies. For example, the upturn was quite strong only during the winter 2009/2010 in the United States and in Japan, and it has lost momentum since then. In other countries that had been hit by a banking crisis and/or a housing crisis, such as the United Kingdom, Spain, or Ireland, the recovery has been sluggish until recently. In this paper, we analyze whether the developments so far are surprising in the light of experience with previous crises. In other words: Is there any indication that 'this time is different'? In particular, we will argue that it is crucial to distinguish between normal recessions and recessions which are associated with a crisis to classify the current recovery in the historical context appropriately.

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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) in its series Kiel Policy Brief with number 22.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:22
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  1. Chang-Jin Kim & James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2003. "Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions," Working Papers 2002-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  2. Daniel E. Sichel, 1992. "Inventories and the three phases of the business cycle," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 128, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "Is the 2007 US Sub-prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 339-44, May.
  4. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Scheide, Joachim & Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Van Roye, Björn, 2009. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2009," Kiel Discussion Papers 468/469, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  5. Jens Hogrefe & Nils Jannsen & Carsten-Patrick Meier, 2010. "The Ugly and the Bad: Banking and Housing Crises Strangle Output Permanently, Ordinary Recessions Do Not," Kiel Working Papers 1586, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  6. Boss, Alfred & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2009. "Die deutsche Wirtschaft im Sog der Weltrezession," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28657, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  7. Beaudry, Paul & Koop, Gary, 1993. "Do recessions permanently change output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 149-163, April.
  8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973, April.
  9. Nils Jannsen, 2010. "National and International Business Cycle Effects of Housing Crises," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(2), pages 175-206.
  10. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas, 2009. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2009," Kiel Discussion Papers 461/462, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  11. Bradley, Michael D & Jansen, Dennis W, 1997. "Nonlinear Business Cycle Dynamics: Cross-country Evidence on the Persistence of Aggregate Shocks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(3), pages 495-509, July.
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