Growth patterns after the crisis: This time is not different
The recovery of the world economy is evolving with a considerable degree of heterogeneity across countries. While the recovery in emerging countries, in particular in Eastern Asia, was very pronounced, it was disappointingly slow in most advanced economies. For example, the upturn was quite strong only during the winter 2009/2010 in the United States and in Japan, and it has lost momentum since then. In other countries that had been hit by a banking crisis and/or a housing crisis, such as the United Kingdom, Spain, or Ireland, the recovery has been sluggish until recently. In this paper, we analyze whether the developments so far are surprising in the light of experience with previous crises. In other words: Is there any indication that 'this time is different'? In particular, we will argue that it is crucial to distinguish between normal recessions and recessions which are associated with a crisis to classify the current recovery in the historical context appropriately.
|Date of creation:||2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +49 431 8814-1
Fax: +49 431 8814528
Web page: http://www.ifw-kiel.de/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jeremy Piger & James Morley & Chang-Jin Kim, 2005.
"Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 291-309.
- Chang-Jin Kim & James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2003. "Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions," Working Papers 2002-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas, 2009. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2009," Kiel Discussion Papers 461/462, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Nils Jannsen, 2010.
"National and International Business Cycle Effects of Housing Crises,"
Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik),
Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(2), pages 175-206.
- Nils Jannsen, 2009. "National and International Business Cycle Effects of Housing Crises," Kiel Working Papers 1510, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Daniel E. Sichel, 1992.
"Inventories and the three phases of the business cycle,"
Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section
128, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Sichel, Daniel E, 1994. "Inventories and the Three Phases of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 269-77, July.
- Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Scheide, Joachim & Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Van Roye, Björn, 2009. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2009," Kiel Discussion Papers 468/469, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Bradley, Michael D & Jansen, Dennis W, 1997. "Nonlinear Business Cycle Dynamics: Cross-country Evidence on the Persistence of Aggregate Shocks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(3), pages 495-509, July.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
- Jens Hogrefe & Nils Jannsen & Carsten-Patrick Meier, 2010. "The Ugly and the Bad: Banking and Housing Crises Strangle Output Permanently, Ordinary Recessions Do Not," Kiel Working Papers 1586, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Boss, Alfred & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2009. "Die deutsche Wirtschaft im Sog der Weltrezession," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28657, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Beaudry, Paul & Koop, Gary, 1993. "Do recessions permanently change output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 149-163, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:47873. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.