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Weltwirtschaft: Tiefpunkt der Produktion erreicht

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  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • van Roye, Björn
  • Scheide, Joachim

Abstract

Nach dem massiven Einbruch im Herbst 2008 schrumpfte die Weltproduktion im ersten Quartal 2009 nochmals sehr kräftig. Sowohl in den Industrieländern als auch in den meisten Schwellenländern setzte sich die Talfahrt in ungebremstem Tempo fort. Inzwischen deutet jedoch vieles darauf hin, dass sich die Weltkonjunktur im Sommerhalbjahr 2009 fängt. Allerdings erwarten wir für den Prognosezeitraum angesichts weiterhin bestehender Belastungsfaktoren eine nur allmähliche Erholung der Weltkonjunktur. Das globale Bruttoinlandsprodukt dürfte mit einer Rate von 2,3 Prozent im kommenden Jahr abermals deutlich schwächer zulegen als im mittelfristigen Trend. Während wir unsere Prognose für den Zuwachs der Weltproduktion im Jahr 2010 damit im Vergleich zu unserer Frühjahrsprognose (2,1 Prozent) leicht aufwärts revidiert haben, hat sich der Ausblick für den Produktionsanstieg im laufenden Jahr nochmals deutlich verschlechtert. Wir erwarten nunmehr einen Rückgang der weltwirtschaftlichen Aktivität von 1,5 Prozent (Märzprognose: –0,8 Prozent).

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  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2009. "Weltwirtschaft: Tiefpunkt der Produktion erreicht," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28650, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:28650
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    1. Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2010," Kiel Discussion Papers 478, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Laaser, Claus-Friedrich, 2010. "Nutzerabhängige Verkehrsfinanzierung und räumliche Arbeitsteilung: Globale und raumwirtschaftliche Aspekte," Forschungs- und Sitzungsberichte der ARL: Aufsätze, in: Hesse, Markus (ed.), Neue Rahmenbedingungen, Herausforderungen und Strategien für die großräumige Verkehrsentwicklung, volume 127, pages 100-114, ARL – Akademie für Raumentwicklung in der Leibniz-Gemeinschaft.
    3. Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & van Roye, Björn & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Moderate Erholung in Deutschland - Arbeitsmarkt in erstaunlich guter Verfassung," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 45584, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Laaser, Claus-Friedrich, 2010. "Nutzerabhängige Verkehrsfinanzierung und räumliche Arbeitsteilung: Globale und raumwirtschaftliche Aspekte," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 59901, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2009. "Deutschland: Stabilisierung der Produktion auf niedrigen Niveau," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28847, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2009. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Sommer 2009," Kiel Discussion Papers 466/467, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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