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Deutschland: Stabilisierung der Produktion auf niedrigen Niveau

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Listed:
  • Boss, Alfred
  • Dovern, Jonas
  • Groll, Dominik
  • Meier, Carsten-Patrick
  • van Roye, Björn
  • Scheide, Joachim

Abstract

Zur Jahresmitte 2009 hat sich die Konjunktur in Deutschland annähernd stabilisiert. Einige Indikatoren deuten darauf hin, dass die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion nach dem Einbruch im Winterhalbjahr 2008/09 zuletzt nur noch wenig zurückgegangen ist. Gleichwohl ist die Rezession keineswegs überwunden. Für das Jahr 2009 insgesamt hat sich die Ausgangsbasis gegenüber unserer Prognose vom März erheblich verschlechtert. Das Produktionsniveau ist im ersten Quartal spürbar niedriger als damals unterstellt. Vor allem deshalb haben wir unsere Prognose nochmals nach unten revidiert: Das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt dürfte im laufenden Jahr um 6,0 Prozent sinken (Prognose vom März 2009: –3,7 Prozent). Für das kommende Jahr erwarten wir einen nur sehr moderaten Anstieg um 0,4 Prozent (März 2009: –0,1 Prozent).

Suggested Citation

  • Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2009. "Deutschland: Stabilisierung der Produktion auf niedrigen Niveau," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28847, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:28847
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    References listed on IDEAS

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