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Estimating Quarterly Gdp Data For The South Pacific Island Nations

Author

Listed:
  • WILLIE LAHARI

    (Department of Economics, University of Otago, P. O. Box 56, Dunedin 9054, New Zealand)

  • ALFRED A. HAUG

    (Department of Economics, University of Otago, P. O. Box 56, Dunedin 9054, New Zealand)

  • ARLENE GARCES-OZANNE

    (Department of Economics, University of Otago, P. O. Box 56, Dunedin 9054, New Zealand)

Abstract

Time series analyses generally rely on having a relatively high frequency of consistent and reliable data to work with. However for many South Pacific Island Nations (SPINs), data on macroeconomic series, like GDP, are typically available only annually from the 1980s onwards. This paper empirically estimates quarterly GDP data from annual series using the modified Chow and Lin (1971) approach. We link available annual GDP series for select SPINs with GDP-related series that are available quarterly. We deem that our quarterly estimates of GDP are more consistent and reliable compared to estimates obtained through less sophisticated methods of univariate interpolation.

Suggested Citation

  • Willie Lahari & Alfred A. Haug & Arlene Garces-Ozanne, 2011. "Estimating Quarterly Gdp Data For The South Pacific Island Nations," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 56(01), pages 97-112.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:56:y:2011:i:01:n:s0217590811004122
    DOI: 10.1142/S0217590811004122
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    9. Gulasekaran Rajaguru & Tilak Abeysinghe, 2004. "Quarterly real GDP estimates for China and ASEAN4 with a forecast evaluation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 431-447.
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    Cited by:

    1. Amina Al Naabi & Shekar Bose, 2020. "Do Regulatory Measures Necessarily Affect Oman’s Seafood Export-Supply?," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(3), pages 21582440209, August.
    2. Willie Lahari, 2010. "Permanent and Transitory Shocks among Pacific Island Economies - Prospects for a Pacific Islands Currency Union," Working Papers 1001, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2010.
    3. Willie Lahari, 2011. "Assessing Business Cycle Synchronisation - Prospects for a Pacific Islands Currency Union," Working Papers 1110, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2011.
    4. Ijaz Rehman & Nurul Mahdzan & Alexandru Trifu & Muhammad Bilal, 2014. "A cointegration approach to modeling human capital formation, self-employment, and economic growth: evidence from Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1439-1453, May.
    5. Nguyen, Bao & Sum, Dek, 2019. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Trade Balance Adjustments in Papua New Guinea," MPRA Paper 93033, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Quarterly GDP; disaggregation of time series; South Pacific Island Nations; C82; E00;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General

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