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El Desempleo en Colombia

Author

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  • Luis Eduardo Arango
  • Carlos Esteban Posada

Abstract

Este documento describe la evolución de la tasa de desempleo urbano en Colombia en el período 1984:1-2000:2. Incluye evidencia sobre algunas de las propiedades de las series de tiempo del mercado laboral tales como las tasas de desempleo, de ocupación y de participación. Se estiman las etapas de equilibrio y desequilibrio del mercado laboral y se establece, así, el período para el cual es válida la hipótesis de igualdad entre el componente de tendencia de la tasa de desempleo y la tasa natural. En este sentido, el documento discute la posibilidad de que el componente de tendencia haya tenido un crecimiento mayor que la tasa natural. En este sentido, el documento discute la posibilidad de que el componente de tendencia haya tenido un crecimiento mayor que la tasa natural a raíz de choques cuyos efectos son bastantes persistentes dada la inflexibilidad a la baja del salario real y otros costos salariales. Por ello, no se puede rechazar la hipótesis de histéresis de la tasa de desempleo. Suponiendo un crecimiento de la productividad de 1%, políticas para reducir el desempleo de 20% a 14.9%, según uno de los métodos de descomposición utilizados, no deberían tener consecuencias inflacionarias, siempre que el salario real y otros costos laborales sean flexibles a la baja. Niveles inferiores a 14.9% generarían presiones inflacionarias, a menos que disminuyan los impuestos a la nómina y mejoren los sistemas de información y adiestramiento de la fuerza laboral para lograr un mejor matching entre oferta y demanda de trabajo.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2001. "El Desempleo en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 176, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:176
    DOI: 10.32468/be.176
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Juan Carlos Guataqui, 2000. "Estimaciones de la tasa natural de desempleo en Colombia: una revisi√≥n," Borradores de Investigación 2603, Universidad del Rosario.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jhon James Mora & Juan Muro, 2014. "Informality and minimum wages by cohort in Colombia," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID.
    2. Martha Misas A & Enrique L�pez E, 2001. "Desequilibrios Reales En Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 19(40), pages 5-45.
    3. Carlos A. Arango & Martha Misas & Enrique L�pez, 2006. "Economía subterránea en Colombia 1976-2003: una medición a partir de la demanda de efectivo," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 24(50), pages 154-211.
    4. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2001. "Unemployment Rate And The Real Wage Behavior: A Neoclassical Hint For The Colombian Labor Market Adjustment," Borradores de Economia 3736, Banco de la Republica.
    5. Rodrigo Taborda & Juan Carlos Guataqui, 2003. "Firm level evidence of efficiency wages and labor turnover in Colombia's manufacturing industry," Borradores de Investigación 2729, Universidad del Rosario.
    6. José R. Gamarra, 2006. "¿Cómo se comportan las tasas de desempleo en siete ciudades colombianas?," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario.
    7. Juan David Barón, 2012. "Primeras experiencias laborales de los profesionales colombianos: probabilidad de empleo formal y salarios," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE.
    8. Juan Barón, 2012. "First job experiences of Colombian college graduates: probability of formal employment and wages," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 76, pages 55-86.
    9. Carlos Enrique Castellar Palma, 2004. "Presente, Pedagogia Y Futuro De La Econometria," Documentos de Trabajo 3366, Universidad del Valle, CIDSE.
    10. Nelson Eduardo Barreto & Mauricio Caicedo, 2011. "Estimación de la curva de Phillips para Colombia, periodo mensual 2001 - 2007," Documentos de Investigación 8212, Universidad de los Llanos.
    11. José Carlos Trejo García & Estefanía Carolina Rivera Hernández & Humberto Ríos Bolívar, 2017. "Análisis de la histéresis del desempleo en México ante shocks macroeconómicos, 1999-2014," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 62(4), pages 1228-1248, Octubre-D.
    12. Jhon-James Mora & Andres Cendales & Carolina Caicedo, 2017. "Diplomas and educational mismatch in Cali using classified advertisements," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 86, pages 179-198, Enero - J.
    13. Juan D. Barón, 2010. "Primeras experiencias laborales de los profesionales colombianos: Probabilidad de empleo formal y salarios," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 132, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    14. Céspedes Reynaga, Nikita, 2003. "Factores cíclicos y estructurales en la evolución de la tasa de desempleo," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 9, pages 199-221.
    15. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada & Alejandro Charry, 2003. "La Participaci�n Laboral en Colombia Seg�n la Nueva Encuesta: � Cambian sus Determinantes?," Borradores de Economia 3048, Banco de la Republica.
    16. Luis Arango & Carlos Posada, 2002. "Unemployment rate and the real wage behaviour: a neoclassical hint for the Colombian labour market adjustment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(7), pages 425-428.
    17. Héctor Alberto Botello Penaloza & Isaac Guerrero Rincón, 2021. "Impacto de las acciones de mitigación del COVID-19 en la informalidad laboral rural en Colombia," Revista Tendencias, Universidad de Narino, vol. 22(2), pages 182-212.
    18. José Carlos Trejo García & Estefanía Carolina Rivera Hernández & Humberto Ríos Bolívar, 2017. "Analysis of the hysteresis of unemployment in Mexico in the face of macroeconomic shocks," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 62(4), pages 1249-1269, Octubre-D.
    19. Jhon James Mora & Andres Cendales & Caicedo Carolina, 2016. "Diplomas y desajuste educativo en Cali a partir de avisos clasificados," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 86, pages 179-198.
    20. James Alm & Hugo L�pez Casta�o, 2002. "Payroll taxes in Colombia," Informes de Investigación 3316, Fedesarrollo.
    21. Nelson Manolo Chávez Munoz, 2010. "Inflación y crecimiento económico: determinantes del desempleo en Colombia," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 2(1), pages 29-52.
    22. Juan D. Barón, 2010. "Primeras experiencias laborales de los profesionales colombianos: Probabilidad de empleo formal y salarios," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 7625, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.

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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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