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Economía subterránea en Colombia 1976-2003: una medición a partir de la demanda de efectivo

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Listed:
  • Carlos A. Arango

    ()

  • Martha Misas

    ()

  • Enrique López

    ()

Abstract

La economía subterránea (ES), definida de manerasuscinta como aquella asociada con actividades por fue-ra de las instituciones legales de un país, es de particularrelevancia en Colombia debido al alcance que tiene laeconomía del narcotráfico y la economía informal evasorade la legislación fiscal y laboral; esto es particularmenteimportante no sólo para el banco central, pues la ES tieneuna ingerencia directa en la demanda de efectivo, sinotambién por sus implicaciones fiscales e institucionales.En este trabajo se hace una revisión crítica del estado del arte sobre la estimación de la ES representado en los modelos estructurales:multiple indicators multiple causes (MIMIC) y dynamic multiple indicators multiplecauses (DYMIMIC). En particular, se documenta el posible sesgo de variableomitida que estos pueden presentar en su estimación y las ventajas de repre-sentaciones más generales del tipo estado-espacio estimadas mediante filtrode Kalman, enfoque que es aplicado al caso colombiano, donde se parte deuna función de demanda de efectivo y se estima la dinámica y tamaño de la ESen el período 1976-2003. Debido a los limitados grados de libertad, se calcu-laron intervalos de confianza por medio de un procedimiento de bootstrappingpara establecer la imortancia de las distintas “causas” de la ES.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos A. Arango & Martha Misas & Enrique López, 2006. "Economía subterránea en Colombia 1976-2003: una medición a partir de la demanda de efectivo," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 24(50), pages 154-211, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000107:002397
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Feige, Edgar L., 1990. "Defining and estimating underground and informal economies: The new institutional economics approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(7), pages 989-1002, July.
    2. Luis Eduardo Arango T. & Carlos Esteban Posada P., 2001. "El desempleo en Colombia," COYUNTURA SOCIAL 012955, FEDESARROLLO.
    3. Leopoldo Fergusson, 2003. "Tributación, Crecimiento Y Bienestar: El Caso Colombiano(1970-1999)," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 003662, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
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    Cited by:

    1. Villa,Edgar & Misas,Martha A. & Loayza,Norman V., 2016. "Illicit activity and money laundering from an economic growth perspective : a model and an application to Colombia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7578, The World Bank.
    2. Branimir Jovanovic, 2015. "Kalman Filter Estimation of the Unrecorded Economy in Macedonia," Working Papers 2015-02, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia.
    3. Mauricio Cárdenas, 2007. "Economic Growth In Colombia: A Reversal Of ‘Fortune’?," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 25(53), pages 220-259, January.
    4. Jorge E. Galán and & Miguel Sarmiento, 2008. "Banknote Printing at Modern central Banking: Trends, Costs and Efficiency," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 217-262, July-Dece.
    5. Guillermo Vuletin, 2008. "What is the Size of the Pie? Measuring the Informal Economy in Latin America and the Caribbean," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 161-191, July-Dece.
    6. Diana Marcela Jiménez, 2012. "La informalidad laboral en América Latina: ¿explicación estructuralista o institucionalista?," REVISTA CUADERNOS DE ECONOMÍA, UN - RCE - CID, December.
    7. Yan Sun & Rupa Duttagupta, 2008. "Price Dynamics in the Eastern Caribbean," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 193-216, July-Dece.
    8. Mauricio Cárdenas Santa María, 2007. "Economic growth in Colombia: a reversal of "fortune"?," WORKING PAPERS SERIES. DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 009193, FEDESARROLLO.
    9. Daniel MITCHELL RESTREPO, 2006. "Forecasting the Colombian Exchange Rate: Capital Adjustments and Politics vs. Traditional IRP, Trade Adjustments and Random Walk Frameworks," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA 011228, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.
    10. Odean B. White, 2008. "Determinants of Commercial Banks’ Cost of Financial Intermediation in Jamaica: a Maximum Likelihood Estimation Approach," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 129-159, July-Dece.
    11. Vargas, Jose P Mauricio, 2012. "To be or not to be informal?: A Structural Simulation," MPRA Paper 41290, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economía subterránea; carga fiscal; regulación del Gobierno; Estimación del filtro de Kalman; demanda de efectivo;

    JEL classification:

    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance

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