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Economía subterránea en Colombia 1976-2003: una medición a partir de la demanda de efectivo

  • Carlos A. Arango

    ()

  • Martha Misas

    ()

  • Enrique López

    ()

La economía subterránea (ES), definida de manerasuscinta como aquella asociada con actividades por fue-ra de las instituciones legales de un país, es de particularrelevancia en Colombia debido al alcance que tiene laeconomía del narcotráfico y la economía informal evasorade la legislación fiscal y laboral; esto es particularmenteimportante no sólo para el banco central, pues la ES tieneuna ingerencia directa en la demanda de efectivo, sinotambién por sus implicaciones fiscales e institucionales.En este trabajo se hace una revisión crítica del estado del arte sobre la estimación de la ES representado en los modelos estructurales:multiple indicators multiple causes (MIMIC) y dynamic multiple indicators multiplecauses (DYMIMIC). En particular, se documenta el posible sesgo de variableomitida que estos pueden presentar en su estimación y las ventajas de repre-sentaciones más generales del tipo estado-espacio estimadas mediante filtrode Kalman, enfoque que es aplicado al caso colombiano, donde se parte deuna función de demanda de efectivo y se estima la dinámica y tamaño de la ESen el período 1976-2003. Debido a los limitados grados de libertad, se calcu-laron intervalos de confianza por medio de un procedimiento de bootstrappingpara establecer la imortancia de las distintas “causas” de la ES.

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File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/sites/default/files/publicaciones/archivos/espe_050-4.pdf
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Article provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE in its journal ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA.

Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:col:000107:002397
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  1. Edgar L. Feige, 2003. "Defining And Estimating Underground And Informal Economies: The New Institional Economics Approach," Development and Comp Systems 0312003, EconWPA.
  2. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, . "El Desempleo en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 176, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  3. Leopoldo Fergusson, 2003. "Tributación, Crecimiento Y Bienestar: El Caso Colombiano(1970-1999)," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 003662, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
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