IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/borrec/335.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Economía Subterránea en Colombia 1976-2003: Una medición a partir de la Demanda de Efectivo

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Arango A.
  • Martha Misas
  • Enrique López

Abstract

La economía subterránea (ES), definida ampliamente como aquella asociada con actividades al margen del código legal de un país, es de particular relevancia en Colombia debido al alcance que tiene la economía del narcotráfico y la economía informal evasora de la legislación fiscal y laboral. Esto es particularmente relevante no solo para el Banco Central, pues la ES tiene una ingerencia directa en la demanda de efectivo, sino también por sus implicaciones fiscales e institucionales. En este trabajo se hace una revisión crítica del estado del arte en la estimación de la ES representado en los modelos estructurales: "multiple indicators multiple causes" (MIMIC) y "dynamic multiple indicators multiple causes" (DYMIMIC). En particular, se documenta el posible sesgo de variable omitida que estos pueden presentar en su estimación y las ventajas que pueden tener representaciones más generales del tipo estado-espacio estimadas mediante filtro de Kalman. Este último enfoque es aplicado al caso colombiano donde se parte de una función de demanda de efectivo y se estima la dinámica y tamaño de la ES en el período 1976-2003. Debido a los limitados grados de libertad, se calcularon intervalos de confianza implementando "bootstrapping" para establecer la significancia de las distintas "causas" de la ES.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Arango A. & Martha Misas & Enrique López, 2005. "Economía Subterránea en Colombia 1976-2003: Una medición a partir de la Demanda de Efectivo," Borradores de Economia 335, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:335
    DOI: 10.32468/be.335
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/be.335
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32468/be.335?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bhattacharyya, Dilip K, 1999. "On the Economic Rationale of Estimating the Hidden Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(456), pages 348-359, June.
    2. Feige, Edgar L., 1990. "Defining and estimating underground and informal economies: The new institutional economics approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(7), pages 989-1002, July.
    3. Luis Eduardo Arango T. & Carlos Esteban Posada P., 2001. "El desempleo en Colombia," Coyuntura Social 12955, Fedesarrollo.
    4. Leopoldo Fergusson, 2003. "Tributación, Crecimiento Y Bienestar: El Caso Colombiano(1970-1999)," Documentos CEDE 3662, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Loayza, Norman & Villa, Edgar & Misas, Martha, 2019. "Illicit activity and money laundering from an economic growth perspective: A model and an application to Colombia," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 442-487.
    2. Jorge E. Galán and & Miguel Sarmiento, 2008. "Banknote Printing at Modern central Banking: Trends, Costs and Efficiency," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 217-262, July-Dece.
    3. Branimir Jovanovic, 2015. "Kalman Filter Estimation of the Unrecorded Economy in Macedonia," Working Papers 2015-02, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    4. Mauricio Cárdenas, 2007. "Economic growth in Colombia: A reversal of "Fortune"?," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 25(53), pages 220-259, January.
    5. Daniel MITCHELL RESTREPO, 2006. "Forecasting the Colombian Exchange Rate: Capital Adjustments and Politics vs. Traditional IRP, Trade Adjustments and Random Walk Frameworks," Archivos de Economía 11228, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    6. Odean B. White, 2008. "Determinants of Commercial Banks’ Cost of Financial Intermediation in Jamaica: a Maximum Likelihood Estimation Approach," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 129-159, July-Dece.
    7. Guillermo Vuletin, 2008. "What is the Size of the Pie? Measuring the Informal Economy in Latin America and the Caribbean," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 161-191, July-Dece.
    8. Vargas, Jose P Mauricio, 2012. "To be or not to be informal?: A Structural Simulation," MPRA Paper 41290, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Diana Marcela Jiménez, 2012. "La informalidad laboral en América Latina: ¿explicación estructuralista o institucionalista?," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, December.
    10. Yan Sun & Rupa Duttagupta, 2008. "Price Dynamics in the Eastern Caribbean," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 193-216, July-Dece.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nino Kokashvili & Irakli Barbakadze & Ketevani Kapanadze, 2017. "How Participating In The Shadow Economy Affects The Growth Of Latvian Firms," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 101, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
    2. Dagmara Nikulin & Ewa Lechman, 2021. "Shadow Economy in Poland: Results of the Survey," SpringerBriefs in Economics, in: Shadow Economy in Poland, chapter 0, pages 49-65, Springer.
    3. Q M Ahmed & M Haider Hussain, 2008. "Estimating the Black Economy through a Monetary Approach: A Case Study of Pakistan," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 13(1), pages 45-60, March.
    4. Stanisław Cichocki, 2008. "Shadow economy and its relations with tax system and state budget in Poland 1995 - 2007," Working Papers 2008-05, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    5. Ramiro Rodríguez Revilla, 2011. "Modelos de equilibrio general dinámicos y estocásticos para Colombia 1995-2011," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, December.
    6. Gemmell, Norman & Hasseldine, John, 2012. "The Tax Gap: A Methodological Review," Working Paper Series 18717, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    7. Nelson Manolo Chávez Munoz, 2010. "Inflación y crecimiento económico: determinantes del desempleo en Colombia," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 2(1), pages 29-52, July.
    8. Friedrich Schneider & Robert Klinglmair, 2004. "Shadow economies around the world: what do we know?," Economics working papers 2004-03, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    9. Leora Klapper & Raphael Amit & Mauro F. Guillén, 2010. "Entrepreneurship and Firm Formation across Countries," NBER Chapters, in: International Differences in Entrepreneurship, pages 129-158, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Fatih Karanfil, 2011. "Environmental regulation in the presence of unrecorded economy," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 126-127, pages 91-108.
    11. Schneider Friedrich & Buehn Andreas, 2017. "Shadow Economy: Estimation Methods, Problems, Results and Open questions," Open Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-29, March.
    12. Friedrich Schneider & Andreas Buehn & Claudio E. Montenegro, 2011. "Shadow Economies All Over the World: New Estimates for 162 Countries from 1999 to 2007," Chapters, in: Friedrich Schneider (ed.), Handbook on the Shadow Economy, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Drydakis, Nick, 2023. "Forced Labor and Health-Related Outcomes. The Case of Beggar Children," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1337, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    14. Santos-Pérez, Rubén, 2016. "Estimación de la economía informal para México mediante un método monetario, 1970-2012," eseconomía, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 11(45), pages 71-103, Segundo s.
    15. Luis Arango & Carlos Posada, 2002. "Unemployment rate and the real wage behaviour: a neoclassical hint for the Colombian labour market adjustment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(7), pages 425-428.
    16. Jhon James Mora & Juan Muro, 2014. "Informality and minimum wages by cohort in Colombia," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, August.
    17. Nezhyvenko, O., 2019. "Indirect or Macroeconomic Methods in Measuring the Informal Economy," Journal of Applied Management and Investments, Department of Business Administration and Corporate Security, International Humanitarian University, vol. 8(4), pages 201-215, December.
    18. Philippe Adair, 2012. "The Non-Observed Economy in the European Union Countries (EU-15): A Comparative Analysis of Estimates," Chapters, in: Michael Pickhardt & Aloys Prinz (ed.), Tax Evasion and the Shadow Economy, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Estrin, Saul & Guerrero, Maribel & Mickiewicz, Tomasz, 2024. "A framework for investigating new firm entry: The (limited) overlap between informal-formal and necessity-opportunity entrepreneurship," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 39(4).
    20. Theis Theisen, 2005. "Tanzanian formal sector workers' participation in informal production," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2469-2485.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:335. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.