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Money laundering in a two sector model: using theory for measurement

This paper implements a methodology that exploits firms and households’ optimality conditions to measure money laundering for the Italian economy. This approach, first implemented by Ingram, Kocherlakota, and Savin (1997) to the household production sector, and by Busato, Chiarini and Di Maro (2006) for measuring the underground economy, allows to generate high frequency series for the money laundering using a theoretical two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated over the sample 1981:01-2001:04. The analysis of the generated series suggests two main results. First, money laundering accounts for approximately 12 percent of aggregate GDP; second, money laundering is more volatile than aggregate GDP, and it is negatively correlated with it.

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Paper provided by Tor Vergata University, CEIS in its series CEIS Research Paper with number 128.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 09 Sep 2008
Date of revision: 09 Sep 2008
Handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:128
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  1. Roberta Zizza, 2002. "Metodologie di stima dell�economia sommersa: un�applicazione al caso italiano," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 463, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  2. Tanzi, Vito, 1999. "Uses and Abuses of Estimates of the Underground Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(456), pages F338-47, June.
  3. Jess Benhabib & Richard Rogerson & Randall Wright, 1991. "Homework in macroeconomics: household production and aggregate fluctuations," Staff Report 135, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  4. Richard Blundell & Thomas MaCurdy, 1998. "Labour supply: a review of alternative approaches," IFS Working Papers W98/18, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  5. Donato Masciandaro, 1999. "Money Laundering: the Economics of Regulation," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 225-240, May.
  6. Frey, Bruno S. & Weck-Hanneman, Hannelore, 1984. "The hidden economy as an 'unobserved' variable," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(1-2), pages 33-53.
  7. Juan Carlos Conesa & Carlos Diaz Moreno & Jose Enrique Galdon Sanchez, 1997. "Underground economy and aggregate fluctuations," Working Papers in Economics 17, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
  8. Wen, J.F. & Love, D.R.F., 1996. "Evaluating Tax Reforms in a Monetary Economy," Working Papers 96005, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics.
  9. Robert G. King & Sergio T. Rebelo, 2000. "Resuscitating Real Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 7534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Methods and Problems in Business Cycle Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 696-715, November.
  11. David E. A. Giles, 1998. "Measuring The Hidden Economy: Implications for Econometric Modelling," Econometrics Working Papers 9809, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  12. Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
  13. Francesco Busato & Bruno Chiarini, 2004. "Market and underground activities in a two-sector dynamic equilibrium model," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 23(4), pages 831-861, May.
  14. Ingram, Beth F. & Kocherlakota, Narayana R. & Savin, N. E., 1997. "Using theory for measurement: An analysis of the cyclical behavior of home production," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 435-456, December.
  15. Bhattacharyya, Dilip K, 1999. "On the Economic Rationale of Estimating the Hidden Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(456), pages F348-59, June.
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