Économie non observée et emploi informel dans les pays de l'Union européenne. Une comparaison des estimations et des déterminants
The Non-Observed Economy (noe) is a convenient typology covering the whole spectrum of unrecorded household and market output (moonlighting, fraud on taxes and social security contributions, criminal activities). Macroeconomic estimates of such activities in terms of gdp proceed from various methods, which are more or less biased and do not match. Direct approaches are based on tax audits and informal employment surveys. Indirect measurements are issued from discrepancies on the commodity market (Income and Expenditure from National Accounts), on the money market (currency demand, transactions) and on the labour market (implicit labour supply), as well as from dynamic multi-variables modelling. According to estimates, the size of noe varies across European Union countries – Mediterranean area being prominent, although no North-South divide shows up –, as well as over time: According to time series, it increased throughout the 1990s, although displaying fluctuating trends. Analysis is tackled through tax evasion models and segmented labour markets. Comparative studies suggest that determinants do not result so much from tax load or tax burden, but relate to the costs of regulation, as regards labour and the operation of (small) firms. Classification JEL : H0, K4, O2
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