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Measuring the Size of the Informal Economy: A Critical Review

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  • George M. Georgiou

    (Central Bank of Cyprus)

Abstract

There has been a burgeoning number of studies attempting to measure the size of the ‘black’ economy. These are based on a variety of methodologies and provide a range of estimates, not just across countries but also within the same countries and often by the same author(s). This raises a number of issues: What is meant by the term ‘black’ economy? Is it an appropriate description? What, if any, is the theory underlying the estimates of informal economic activity? This paper examines these and other issues, and concludes that whilst the existence of what we prefer to call the ‘informal’ or ‘grey’ economy in most countries is incontrovertible, there is a lack of consensus on the appropriate methodology for estimating its size. More importantly, the large number of studies so far are simply exercises in measurement without theory, though we are sceptical that even with strong theoretical underpinnings it is possible to provide accurate estimates of a complicated web of informal activities.

Suggested Citation

  • George M. Georgiou, 2007. "Measuring the Size of the Informal Economy: A Critical Review," Working Papers 2007-1, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    • Handle: RePEc:cyb:wpaper:2007-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Abdel-Latif, Hany & Ouattara, Bazoumana & Murphy, Phil, 2017. "Catching the mirage: The shadow impact of financial crises," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 61-70.
    3. Gamal, Awadh Ahmed Mohammed & Rambeli, Norimah & Abdul Jalil, Norasibah & Kuperan Viswanathan, K., 2019. "A modified Currency Demand Function and the Malaysian shadow economy: Evidence from ARDL bounds testing approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 266-281.
    4. Yallwe, Hagos Alem & Buscemi, Antonino, 2011. "Money laundry and financial development," MPRA Paper 32219, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Makoto Saito, 2021. "Central Banknotes and Black Markets: The Case of the Japanese Economy During and Immediately After World War II," Advances in Japanese Business and Economics, in: Strong Money Demand in Financing War and Peace, pages 25-56, Springer.
    6. Ogunyemi, Oluwole Ibikunle & Adedokun, Adebayo Sunday, 2014. "Towards West-Africa regional economic integration: Formalizing the informal sector," Conference papers 332450, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Paraskevi Koufopoulou & Colin C. Williams & Athanassios Vozikis & Kyriakos Souliotis, 2019. "Shadow Economy: Definitions, terms & theoretical considerations," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 9(5), pages 1-3.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Informal; grey and black economy; tax evasion; criminal activities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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