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Money Laundering in a Microfounded Dynamic Model: Simulations for the U.S. and the EU-15 Economies

  • Bagella Michele

    (University of Rome Tor Vergata)

  • Busato Francesco

    (University of Naples Parthenope)

  • Argentiero Amedeo

    (University of Rome Tor Vergata; Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses (ISAE))

This paper explores the ability of a class of two-sector dynamic general equilibrium models to generate equilibrium time series for Money Laundering (ML), through numerical simulations in accordance with the works of Ingram, Kocherlakota and Savin (1997), Busato, Chiarini and Di Maro (2006), and Argentiero, Bagella and Busato (2008). The paper adopts this approach for the US and the EU-15 economies. The simulations show that ML accounts for 19 percent of GDP in the EU-15 economy, while it accounts for 13 percent in the US economy over the sample 2000:01-2007:04. Moreover, the ML simulated for the EU-15 is less volatile (relative standard deviation to GDP is 0.288 compared to a figure of almost 0.4 for the US economy), and negatively correlated with respect to GDP. The latter statistic is positive for the US economy.

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Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Review of Law & Economics.

Volume (Year): 5 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (December)
Pages: 879-902

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:rlecon:v:5:y:2009:i:2:n:4
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  1. Domeij, David & Floden, Martin, 2001. "The labor-supply elasticity and borrowing constraints: Why estimates are biased," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 480, Stockholm School of Economics.
  2. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1998. "Sticky price models of the business cycle: can the contract multiplier solve the persistence problem?," Staff Report 217, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. Wen, J.F. & Love, D.R.F., 1996. "Evaluating Tax Reforms in a Monetary Economy," Working Papers 96005, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics.
  4. Amedeo Argentiero & Michele Bagella & Francesco Busato, 2008. "Money laundering in a two sector model: using theory for measurement," CEIS Research Paper 128, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 09 Sep 2008.
  5. Ingram, Beth F. & Kocherlakota, Narayana R. & Savin, N. E., 1997. "Using theory for measurement: An analysis of the cyclical behavior of home production," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 435-456, December.
  6. Francesco Busato & Bruno Chiarini, 2004. "Market and underground activities in a two-sector dynamic equilibrium model," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 23(4), pages 831-861, May.
  7. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  8. James P. Ziliak & Thomas J. Kniesner, 2005. "The Effect of Income Taxation on Consumption and Labor Supply," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 23(4), pages 769-796, October.
  9. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
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