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La tasa natural de desempleo en Colombia y sus determinantes

  • Jorge Andrés Tamayo

    ()

En este trabajo se estima una tasa natural de desempleo para Colombia en el período 1984-2006. Siguiendo el modelo de negociación de salarios de Blanchard (1991), se emplea un filtro de Kalman, para estimar un sistema de ecuaciones para la tasa natural de desempleo, el desajuste del mercado laboral, los salarios y los precios según la metodología propuesta por Salemi (1999). Los resultados de este ejercicio resaltan el papel de la participación joven en el mercado laboral y los costos laborales no salariales como principales determinantes de la tasa natural de desempleo. Asimismo, le restan importancia al papel del salario mínimo en dicha tasa natural, al tiempo que sugieren la existencia de ajustes del mercado laboral colombiano "vía precios".

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 491.

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