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La tasa natural de desempleo en Colombia y sus determinantes

  • Jorge Andrés Tamayo

    ()

En este trabajo se estima una tasa natural de desempleo para Colombia en el período 1984-2006. Siguiendo el modelo de negociación de salarios de Blanchard (1991), se emplea un filtro de Kalman, para estimar un sistema de ecuaciones para la tasa natural de desempleo, el desajuste del mercado laboral, los salarios y los precios según la metodología propuesta por Salemi (1999). Los resultados de este ejercicio resaltan el papel de la participación joven en el mercado laboral y los costos laborales no salariales como principales determinantes de la tasa natural de desempleo. Asimismo, le restan importancia al papel del salario mínimo en dicha tasa natural, al tiempo que sugieren la existencia de ajustes del mercado laboral colombiano "vía precios".

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 491.

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  1. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1996. "What We Know and Do Not Know About the Natural Rate of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 5822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Juan Manuel Julio, . "How Uncertain are NAIRU Estimates in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 184, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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  4. Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango, 2006. "Las fuentes del desempleo en Colombia: un examen a partir de un modelo SVEC," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003115, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  5. Eduardo Lora & Carmen Pagés-Serra, 1997. "La legislación laboral en el proceso de reformas estructurales de América Latina y el Caribe," Research Department Publications 4065, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  6. Paula Herrera & Luie Eduardo Arango & Carlos Estéban Posada, 2007. "El salario mínimo aspectos generales sobre los casos de Colombia y otros paises," DOCUMENTOS DE ECONOMÍA 003944, UNIVERSIDAD JAVERIANA - BOGOTÁ.
  7. Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. N. Gregory Mankiw, 2000. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff Between Inflation and Unemployment," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1905, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  9. Johnson, G.E. & Layard, P.R.G., 1987. "The natural rate of unemployment: Explanation and policy," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & R. Layard (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 16, pages 921-999 Elsevier.
  10. Sergio Clavijo & Luis Ignacio Lozano, 2001. "Generación de Empleo y Parafiscalidad: Soluciones Estructurales en Tiempos de Crisis," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002763, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  11. Paul Krugman, 1994. "Past and prospective causes of high unemployment," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Jan, pages 49-98.
  12. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1991. "Wage Bargaining and Unemployment Persistence," NBER Working Papers 3664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "La Tasa De Desempleo De Largo Plazo En Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003085, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  14. Juan Carlos Guataqui, 2000. "Estimaciones de la tasa natural de desempleo en Colombia: una revisión," BORRADORES DE INVESTIGACIÓN 002603, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  15. William Maloney & Jairo Mendez, 2004. "Measuring the Impact of Minimum Wages. Evidence from Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: Law and Employment: Lessons from Latin America and the Caribbean, pages 109-130 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1993. "The Natural Rate Hypothesis and its Testable Implications," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9314, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  17. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence Katz, 1999. "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Phelps, Edmund S & Zoega, Gylfi, 1997. "The Rise and Downward Trend of the Natural Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 283-89, May.
  19. Yellen, Janet L, 1984. "Efficiency Wage Models of Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 200-205, May.
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  21. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
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