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La Curva de Beveridge en Colombia (1976-2014): Cambios cíclicos y estructurales

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  • Andrés Álvarez

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Abstract

En este trabajo se analiza la evolución de la Curva de Beveridge (CB) para Colombia entre 1976 y 2014. Aprovechando la disponibilidad reciente de datos trimestrales de tasas de vacantes nacionales recolectados por el Banco de la República se propone una cronología de la evolución de la relación entre vacantes y desempleo de estas cuatro últimas décadas. Mediante un modelo estructural de vectores autorregresivos, basado en la teoría del emparejamiento (matching) se descomponen los choques del ciclo económico, los cambios estructurales en la función de emparejamiento y los de participación laboral. Se concluye que desde mediados de la década de 1980s la CB en Colombia se desplazó estructuralmente debido a una combinación de dos factores: 1) un choque negativo a la actividad económica posterior a la crisis que se presenta en ese período que confluye con 2) un deterioro en las condiciones estructurales del mercado laboral que venían deteriorando la función de emparejamiento debido al descalce entre oferta y demanda con respecto a la calificación de la mano de obra. Desde finales de la primera década del siglo XXI parece haber mejorado la eficiencia del mercado laboral de manera que los efectos negativos del ciclo económico de 2008 no afectaron de la misma forma la tasa de desempleo como en épocas anteriores. Esto sugiere que la tasa de desempleo de largo plazo presenta una tendencia a la disminución, evidenciada en mejoras en la eficiencia del mercado laboral.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrés Álvarez, 2016. "La Curva de Beveridge en Colombia (1976-2014): Cambios cíclicos y estructurales," Borradores de Economia 962, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:962
    DOI: 10.32468/be.962
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/be.962
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Curva Beveridge; fricciones del mercado laboral; desempleo; VAR estructural; función de emparejamiento.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers

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