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La crise monetaire turque de 2000/2001 : une analyse de l’echec du plan de stabilisation par le change du FMI

Author

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  • Jerome Hericourt
  • Julien Reynaud

Abstract

Cet article propose un examen empirique de l’echec du Plan de Stabilisation par le Change (PSC) mis en place sous l’impulsion du FMI en Turquie a partir de janvier 2000. Nous estimons un modele vectoriel a correction d’erreur a partir de donnees journalieres, afin d’evaluer statistiquement l’influence des principaux facteurs habituellement mis en cause dans l’echec du PSC turc, au premier rang desquels un secteur bancaire fragilise, un retablissement trop lent des finances publiques et une baisse trop rapide des taux d’interet. Alors que la banque centrale de Turquie n'avait plus aucun instrument autonome pour controler les evolutions monetaires, les resultats soulignent que le programme a cree un arbitrage entre assainissement des finances publiques et stabilite d’un secteur bancaire surexpose aux risques de change et de taux, hypothequant d’emblee tres fortement ses chances de reussite.

Suggested Citation

  • Jerome Hericourt & Julien Reynaud, 2006. "La crise monetaire turque de 2000/2001 : une analyse de l’echec du plan de stabilisation par le change du FMI," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 108, pages 5-26.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2006-4ta
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    File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/IE/rev108/rev108a.htm
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    Cited by:

    1. Z. Yejim Giirbiiz & Thomas Jobert & Ruhi Tuncer, 2008. "The Turkish Experience in Inflation Targeting: Uncertainties and the Efficiency of Monetary Policy," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 116, pages 127-146.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crise de change; Plan de Stabilisation par le Change; politique monetaire; Turquie;

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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