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La crise monetaire turque de 2000/2001 : une analyse de l’echec du plan de stabilisation par le change du FMI

  • Jerome Hericourt
  • Julien Reynaud

Cet article propose un examen empirique de l’echec du Plan de Stabilisation par le Change (PSC) mis en place sous l’impulsion du FMI en Turquie a partir de janvier 2000. Nous estimons un modele vectoriel a correction d’erreur a partir de donnees journalieres, afin d’evaluer statistiquement l’influence des principaux facteurs habituellement mis en cause dans l’echec du PSC turc, au premier rang desquels un secteur bancaire fragilise, un retablissement trop lent des finances publiques et une baisse trop rapide des taux d’interet. Alors que la banque centrale de Turquie n'avait plus aucun instrument autonome pour controler les evolutions monetaires, les resultats soulignent que le programme a cree un arbitrage entre assainissement des finances publiques et stabilite d’un secteur bancaire surexpose aux risques de change et de taux, hypothequant d’emblee tres fortement ses chances de reussite.

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File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/francgraph/publications/ecointern/rev108/rev108a.htm
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Article provided by CEPII research center in its journal Economie Internationale.

Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): 108 ()
Pages: 5-26

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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2006-4ta
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