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Nonlinear interest rate reaction functions for the UK

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  • Brüggemann, Ralf
  • Riedel, Jana

Abstract

We empirically analyze Taylor-type equations for short-term interest rates in the United Kingdom using quarterly data from 1970Q1 to 2006Q2. Starting from strong evidence against a simple linear Taylor rule, we model nonlinearities using logistic smooth transition regression (LSTR) models. The LSTR models with time-varying parameters consistently track actual interest rate movements better than a linear model with constant parameters. Our preferred LSTR model uses lagged interest rates as a transition variable and suggests that in times of recessions the Bank of England puts more weight on the output gap and less so on inflation. A reverse pattern is observed in non-recession periods. Parameters of the model change less frequently after 1992, when an inflation target range was announced. We conclude that for the analysis of historical monetary policy, the LSTR approach is a viable alternative to linear reaction functions.

Suggested Citation

  • Brüggemann, Ralf & Riedel, Jana, 2011. "Nonlinear interest rate reaction functions for the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1174-1185, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:3:p:1174-1185
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    2. baaziz, yosra, 2016. "Les règles de Taylor à l’épreuve de la révolution : cas de l’Égypte [The Taylor rule to the test of the revolution: the case of Egypt]," MPRA Paper 69779, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. T. Philipp Dybowski & Bernd Kempa, 2019. "The ECB’s monetary pillar after the financial crisis," CQE Working Papers 8519, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    4. Zheng Guihuan & Shang Yan & Wang Jue & Wu Ying, 2014. "A Study on the Asymmetry in the Role of Monetary Policy by Using STR model," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 2(3), pages 236-243, June.
    5. Hongyi Chen & Michael Funke & Ivan Lozev & Andrew Tsang, 2020. "To Guide or Not to Guide? Quantitative Monetary Policy Tools and Macroeconomic Dynamics in China," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(5), pages 49-94, October.
    6. Umit Bulut, 2019. "Does the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Respond Asymmetrically to Inflation and Output?," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 13(4), pages 381-400, November.
    7. ZHENG, Tingguo & WANG, Xia & GUO, Huiming, 2012. "Estimating forward-looking rules for China's Monetary Policy: A regime-switching perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 47-59.
    8. Federico M. Giesenow & Jakob de Haan, 2019. "The influence of government ideology on monetary policy: New cross‐country evidence based on dynamic heterogeneous panels," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 216-239, July.
    9. Wang, Rudan & Morley, Bruce & Stamatogiannis, Michalis P., 2019. "Forecasting the exchange rate using nonlinear Taylor rule based models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 429-442.
    10. Dybowski, T. Philipp & Kempa, Bernd, 2020. "The European Central Bank’s monetary pillar after the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    11. Damette, Olivier, 2016. "Mixture Distribution Hypothesis And The Impact Of A Tobin Tax On Exchange Rate Volatility: A Reassessment," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(6), pages 1600-1622, September.
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    14. Yosra Baaziz & Moez Labidi, 2016. "Nonlinear Monetary Policy Rules: An Essay in the Comparative Study on Egyptian and Tunisian Central Banks," Economies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(2), pages 1-18, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rate reaction functions Smooth transition regression model Monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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