IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Mixture distribution hypothesis and the impact of a Tobin tax on exhange rate volatility : a reassessment

  • Olivier Damette

From Olsen Financial Studies data on the Euro-Dollar currency pair (2008-2010), we conduct a time-series analysis to explain the role of trading volume on exchange rate volatility (Mixture Distribution Hypothesis), taking into account non-linearity. We find evidence that the MDH holds in turbulent periods, during which spreads and volume trading are high. When spreads and the volume are high, the relationship between trading volume and volatility tends to increase. Linking this result with the Tobin tax debate implies that a Tobin tax would be effective for curbing speculation and reducing exchange rate volatility, even in turbulent periods. This paper provides the first empirical corroboration of this proposition and seems to confirm some previous theoretical papers in the vein of Tobin. All in all, two main results emerged. First, the abundant literature on the MDH, but exclusively based on linear econometrics, should take into account non-linearities. Second, the effect of a Tobin tax on volatility would be slightly context-dependent and always negative. A Tobin tax would have been stabilizing and effective in the 2008 crisis when spreads, volume and volatility were very high.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.beta-umr7522.fr/productions/publications/2013/2013-07.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg in its series Working Papers of BETA with number 2013-07.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2013-07
Contact details of provider: Postal: PEGE. 61, Aven. de la Forêt-Noire 67000 Strasbourg
Phone: +33 3 68 85 20 69
Fax: +33 3 68 85 20 70
Web page: http://www.beta-umr7522.fr/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 757, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. G. Ehrenstein & F. Westerhoff & D. Stauffer, 2003. "Tobin tax and market depth," Papers cond-mat/0311581, arXiv.org.
  3. Mussa, Michael, 1976. " The Exchange Rate, the Balance of Payments and Monetary and Fiscal Policy under a Regime of Controlled Floating," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 229-48.
  4. van Dijk, Dick & Teräsvirta, Timo & Franses, Philip Hans, 2000. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey of Recent Developments," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 380, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 17 Jan 2001.
  5. Frank Westerhoff, 2003. "Heterogeneous traders and the Tobin tax," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 53-70, 02.
  6. James Tobin, 1978. "A Proposal for International Monetary Reform," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 4(3-4), pages 153-159, Jul/Oct.
  7. Markku Lanne & Timo Vesalay, 2005. "The Effect of a Transaction Tax on Exchange Rate Volatility," Economics Working Papers ECO2005/19, European University Institute.
  8. Kang Shi & Juanyi Xu, 2009. "Entry cost, the Tobin tax, and noise trading in the foreign exchange market," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1501-1526, November.
  9. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 7104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. BAUWENS, Luc & BEN OMRANE, Walid & GIOT, Pierre, . "News announcements, market activity and volatility in the euro/dollar foreign exchange market," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1787, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  11. Michael Melvin & Xixi Yin, . "Public Information Arrival, Exchange Rate Volatility, and Quote Frequency," Working Papers 96/1, Arizona State University, Department of Economics.
  12. BAUWENS, Luc & RIME, Dagfinn & SUCARRAT, Genaro, 2005. "Exchange rate volatility and the mixture of distribution hypothesis," CORE Discussion Papers 2005058, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  13. Jeffrey A. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose., 1995. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-051, University of California at Berkeley.
  14. Eichengreen, Barry & Tobin, James & Wyplosz, Charles, 1995. "Two Cases for Sand in the Wheels of International Finance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(428), pages 162-72, January.
  15. Mougoué, Mbodja & Aggarwal, Raj, 2011. "Trading volume and exchange rate volatility: Evidence for the sequential arrival of information hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2690-2703, October.
  16. Geir Høidal Bjønnes & Dagfinn Rime & Haakon O. Aa. Solheim, 2004. "Liquidity provision in the overnight foreign exchange market," Discussion Papers 391, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
  17. Umlauf, Steven R., 1993. "Transaction taxes and the behavior of the Swedish stock market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 227-240, April.
  18. Westerhoff, Frank H. & Dieci, Roberto, 2006. "The effectiveness of Keynes-Tobin transaction taxes when heterogeneous agents can trade in different markets: A behavioral finance approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 293-322, February.
  19. Neil McCulloch & Grazia Pacillo, 2010. "The Tobin Tax A Review of the Evidence," Working Paper Series 1611, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
  20. Waldyr Dutra Areosa & Michael McAleer & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2009. "Moment-Based Estimation of Smooth Transition Regression Models with Endogenous Variables," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-671, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  21. Harald Hau, 2006. "The Role of Transaction Costs for Financial Volatility: Evidence from the Paris Bourse," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(4), pages 862-890, 06.
  22. Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2003. "Tobin Tax Effects Seen from the Foreign Exchange Market's Microstructure," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 227-47, Summer.
  23. Jeffrey Frankel., 1995. "How Well Do Foreign Exchange Markets Function: Might a Tobin Tax Help?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-058, University of California at Berkeley.
  24. Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  25. Michael Hanke & J?rgen Huber & Michael Kirchler & Matthias Sutter, 2007. "The economic consequences of a Tobin tax - An experimental analysis," Working Papers 2007-18, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
  26. Yongyang Su & Lan Zheng, 2011. "The Impact of Securities Transaction Taxes on the Chinese Stock Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 47(0), pages 32-46, January.
  27. Francis Bismans & Olivier Damette, 2008. "Currency Transaction Tax Elasticity: an Econometric Estimation," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 115, pages 193-212.
  28. Jones, Charles M & Seguin, Paul J, 1997. "Transaction Costs and Price Volatility: Evidence from Commission Deregulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 728-37, September.
  29. Brüggemann, Ralf & Riedel, Jana, 2011. "Nonlinear interest rate reaction functions for the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1174-1185, May.
  30. Davidson, Paul, 1997. "Are Grains of Sand in the Wheels of International Finance Sufficient to Do the Job When Boulders Are Often Required?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(442), pages 671-86, May.
  31. Pellizzari, Paolo & Westerhoff, Frank, 2009. "Some effects of transaction taxes under different microstructures," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 850-863, December.
  32. De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Scholarly Articles 3725552, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  33. Hau, Harald, 1998. "Competitive Entry and Endogenous Risk in the Foreign Exchange Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 757-87.
  34. Frank M. Song & Junxi Zhang, 2005. "Securities Transaction Tax and Market Volatility," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(506), pages 1103-1120, October.
  35. Korkut Erturk, 2006. "On the Tobin Tax," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 71-78.
  36. Gudrun Ehrenstein, 2002. "Cont-Bouchaud percolation model including Tobin tax," Papers cond-mat/0205320, arXiv.org.
  37. Thomas Palley, 1999. "Speculation and Tobin taxes: Why sand in the wheels can increase economic efficiency," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 69(2), pages 113-126, June.
  38. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1990. "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 181-85, May.
  39. Robert Bloomfield & Maureen O'Hara & Gideon Saar, 2009. "How Noise Trading Affects Markets: An Experimental Analysis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2275-2302, June.
  40. G. Bird & R. Rajan, 2001. "Would International Currency Taxation and Currency Stabilisation in Developing Countries?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 21-38.
  41. Bianconi, Ginestra & Galla, Tobias & Marsili, Matteo & Pin, Paolo, 2009. "Effects of Tobin taxes in minority game markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 231-240, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2013-07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.