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The Effect of a Transaction Tax on Exchange Rate Volatility

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  • Markku Lanne
  • Timo Vesalay

Abstract

We argue that a transaction tax is likely to amplify, not dampen, volatility in the foreign exchange markets. Our argument stems from the decentralized trading practice and the presumable discrepancy between 'informed' and 'uninformed' traders' valuations. Since informed 'traders' valuations are likely to be less dispersed, a transaction tax penalizes informed trades disproportionately, leading to increased volatility. Empirical support for this prediction is found by investigating the effect of transaction costs on the volatility of DEM/USD and JPY/USD returns. High-frequency data are used and an increase in transaction costs is found to have a significant positive effect on volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Markku Lanne & Timo Vesalay, 2005. "The Effect of a Transaction Tax on Exchange Rate Volatility," Economics Working Papers ECO2005/19, European University Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2005/19
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harald Hau, 2006. "The Role of Transaction Costs for Financial Volatility: Evidence from the Paris Bourse," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(4), pages 862-890, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hvozdyk, Lyudmyla & Rustanov, Serik, 2016. "The effect of financial transaction tax on market liquidity and volatility: An Italian perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 62-78.
    2. Yongheng Deng & Xin Liu & Shang-Jin Wei, 2014. "One Fundamental and Two Taxes: When Does a Tobin Tax Reduce Financial Price Volatility?," NBER Working Papers 19974, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Damette, Olivier, 2016. "Mixture Distribution Hypothesis And The Impact Of A Tobin Tax On Exchange Rate Volatility: A Reassessment," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(06), pages 1600-1622, September.
    4. Olivier Damette & Beum-Jo Park, 2015. "Tobin Tax and Volatility: A Threshold Quantile Autoregressive Regression Framework," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 996-1022, November.
    5. Alonso, Miguel A. & Rallo, Juan Ramón & Romero, Alberto, 2013. "El efecto de los impuestos a las transacciones financieras en la estabilidad de los mercados de capital. Un debate sin resolver," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(317), pages 207-231, enero-mar.
    6. Neil McCulloch & Grazia Pacillo, 2010. "The Tobin Tax A Review of the Evidence," Working Paper Series 1611, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    7. Danuse Nerudova, 2011. "Taxing the financial sector in the European Union," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2011-16, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    8. Francis Bismans & Olivier Damette, 2012. "La taxe Tobin : une synthèse des travaux basés sur la théorie des jeux et l’économétrie," Working Papers of BETA 2012-09, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Transaction tax; exchange rates; volatility;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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