IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apfiec/v23y2013i5p377-392.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On China's monetary policy and asset prices

Author

Listed:
  • Shujie Yao
  • Dan Luo
  • Lixia Loh

Abstract

This article investigates the dynamic and long-run relationships between the monetary policy and asset prices in China using monthly data from June 2005 to February 2012. Johansen's cointegration approach based on the Vector Autoregression (VAR) and the Granger causality test are used to identify the long-run relationships and directions of causality between asset prices and monetary variables. Empirical results show that monetary policies have little immediate effect on asset prices, suggesting that Chinese investors may be ‘irrational’ and ‘speculative’. Instead of running away from the market, investors rush to buy houses or shares whenever tightening monetary actions are taken. Such seemingly irrational and speculative behaviour can be explained by various social and economic factors, including the lack of investment channels, market imperfections, cultural traditions, urbanization and demographic changes. The results have two important policy implications. First, China's central bank has not used and should not use interest rate alone to maintain macro-economic stability. Second, both monetary and nonmonetary policies should be deployed when asset bubbles loom large to avoid devastating consequences when they burst.

Suggested Citation

  • Shujie Yao & Dan Luo & Lixia Loh, 2013. "On China's monetary policy and asset prices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(5), pages 377-392, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:23:y:2013:i:5:p:377-392
    DOI: 10.1080/09603107.2012.725929
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/09603107.2012.725929
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Koivu, Tuuli & Mehrotra, Aaron & Nuutilainen, Riikka, 2008. "McCallum rule and Chinese monetary policy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    2. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008. "Ensuring financial stability: Financial structure and the impact of monetary policy on asset prices," IMFS Working Paper Series 16, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    3. Aaron Mehrotra & José R Sánchez-Fung, 2010. "China's Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 52(4), pages 497-514, December.
    4. Kai Carstensen & Oliver Hülsewig & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2009. "Monetary Policy Transmission and House Prices: European Cross Country Evidence," Working Paper / FINESS 7.4, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Koivu, Tuuli, 2008. "Has the Chinese economy become more sensitive to interest rates? : Studying credit demand in China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    6. Bernard J Laurens & Rodolfo Maino, 2007. "China; Strengthening Monetary Policy Implementation," IMF Working Papers 07/14, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Mehrotra, Aaron, 2007. "A note on the national contributions to the euro area M3," Research Discussion Papers 2/2007, Bank of Finland.
    8. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-128.
    9. Tarhan Feyzioglu & Nathan Porter & Elöd Takáts, 2009. "Interest Rate Liberalization in China," IMF Working Papers 09/171, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Michael Geiger, 2008. "Instruments Of Monetary Policy In China And Their Effectiveness: 1994–2006," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 187, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    11. Kevin J. Lansing, 2003. "Should the Fed react to the stock market?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov14.
    12. Koivu, Tuuli, 2010. "Monetary policy, asset prices and consumption in China," Working Paper Series 1240, European Central Bank.
    13. Koivu, Tuuli, 2010. "Monetary policy, asset prices and consumption in China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2010, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Taguchi, Hiroyuki & Tian, Lina, 2017. "Capital flows, money supply and property prices: The case of China," MPRA Paper 80730, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:23:y:2013:i:5:p:377-392. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Longhurst). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.