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China's monetary policy and the exchange rate

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  • Mehrotra, Aaron
  • Sánchez-Fung, José R.

Abstract

The paper models monetary policy in China using a hybrid McCallum-Taylor empirical reaction function. The feedback rule allows for reactions to inflation and output gaps, and to developments in a trade-weighted exchange rate gap measure. The investigation finds that monetary policy in China has, on average, accommodated inflationary developments. But exchange rate shocks do not significantly affect monetary policy behavior, and there is no evidence of a structural break in the estimated reaction function at the end of the strict dollar peg in July 2005. The paper also runs an exercise incorporating survey-based inflation expectations into the policy reaction function and meets with some success.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehrotra, Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2010. "China's monetary policy and the exchange rate," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2010, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  • Handle: RePEc:bof:bofitp:2010_010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mccallum, Bennet T., 1988. "Robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 173-203, January.
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    6. Barry Naughton, 2007. "The Chinese Economy: Transitions and Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262640643, May.
    7. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1999. "Interest Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 57-126 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Tomasz Koluk & Aaron Mehrotra, 2009. "The impact of Chinese monetary policy shocks on East and South-East Asia," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 17(1), pages 121-145, January.
    9. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
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    12. Li-gang Liu & Wenlang Zhang, 2007. "A New Keynesian Model for Analysing Monetary Policy in Mainland China," Working Papers 0718, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    13. Tuuli Koivu & Aaron Mehrotra & Riikka Nuutilainen, 2009. "An analysis of Chinese money and prices using a McCallum-type rule," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 219-235.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marjan Petreski & Branimir Jovanovic, 2013. "Monetary Policy in China: The Role of the Qualitative Instruments," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 20(3), pages 437-442, November.
    2. Riikka Nuutilainen, 2015. "Contemporary Monetary Policy in China: An Empirical Assessment," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 461-486, August.
    3. Aaron Mehrotra & José R Sánchez-Fung, 2010. "China's Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 52(4), pages 497-514, December.
    4. Shujie Yao & Dan Luo & Lixia Loh, "undated". "On China’s Monetary Policy and Asset Prices," Discussion Papers 11/04, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    5. Yutaka Kurihara, 2012. "Exchange rate determination and structural changes in response to monetary policies," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 187-196, July.
    6. Shujie Yao & Dan Luo & Lixia Loh, 2013. "On China's monetary policy and asset prices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(5), pages 377-392, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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